IS THE GULF BUILDING A NEW SECURITY ORDER?
Something rather significant is now happening. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have not merely signed a new mutual-defence agreement. They have begun activating it. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reopened high-level diplomatic channels despite serious disagreements over Yemen. Qatar has proposed a regional security framework that would include Iran itself. Meanwhile, China continues to deepen its economic and financial relationships across the Gulf without attempting to reproduce America's military presence.
Whilst the US is being pushed out of the region, chaos remains in place as a new security order starts to take shape. Here are 10 principal concerns to address in this regard.
1. Conflicting threat perceptions and strategic priorities
The most significant obstacle is the absence of agreement over which threats a regional security alliance should confront
2. The unresolved Israeli–Palestinian conflict
The Israeli–Palestinian conflict remains a structural obstacle to any comprehensive Middle Eastern security architecture. Arab governments face considerable political constraints on formalising military cooperation with Israel, particularly when Palestinian sovereignty, territorial control and security remain unresolved.
3. Dependence on American military infrastructure
Many Middle Eastern countries remain deeply integrated into American defence systems through military bases, intelligence-sharing arrangements, advanced weapons platforms, training programmes and logistical support. Ending this is a major challenge.
4. The difficulty of transforming existing agreements into credible collective defence
The Gulf Cooperation Council already possesses a joint defence framework, while the August 2026 Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan represents a significant new development. Its central commitment is that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all. The difficulty is translating this principle into binding operational commitments.
5. Rivalry over regional leadership
A new security alliance would require agreement over political leadership, military command and strategic decision-making. The central challenge is creating institutions capable of coordinating collective action without allowing one dominant member to dictate the policies of others.
6. Iran's inclusion
One of the most consequential strategic decisions concerns Iran's participation in a new security architecture and how that works.
7. Maritime security and the protection of critical infrastructure
The Middle East contains some of the world's most strategically important maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the approaches to the Suez Canal. Protecting these routes requires substantial naval, surveillance, air-defence and intelligence capabilities. A regional alliance would need to establish which countries bear responsibility for protecting these routes, how naval operations are coordinated and whether military action against non-state armed groups requires unanimous political approval.
8. Incompatible weapons systems and insufficient defence-industrial integration
Middle Eastern militaries operate equipment acquired from a wide range of international suppliers, including the United States, European countries, Russia, China and Turkey. These systems frequently differ in communications architecture, maintenance requirements, software, weapons integration and intelligence-sharing arrangements.
9. The financial and economic burden of collective security
Although several Gulf states possess substantial financial resources, creating an independent regional security structure would impose considerable additional costs. Integrated air defence, maritime surveillance, intelligence infrastructure, military bases and joint procurement programmes would require sustained investment over many years.
10. The absence of trusted regional institutions and effective dispute-resolution mechanisms
Another major challenge is institutional. A durable alliance requires more than periodic summits and political declarations. It needs permanent decision-making structures, agreed rules for military intervention, secure intelligence-sharing arrangements, dispute-resolution procedures and mechanisms for enforcing commitments.