My X screener report on sugar (11th Nov)
Overnight sugar talk on X (about 08:00 HKT 11 Nov to 08:00 HKT 12 Nov) was light on ICE #11 and London #5 futures — almost no settle or cents-per-pound posts showed up — and heavier on policy and miller commentary. China import demand and EU beet/white-sugar talk were largely absent.
In India, the loudest thread was ethanol policy. Tehseen Poonawalla argued blending has turned India from a ₹50,000 crore-a-year sugar exporter into an importer, lifting prices without enriching cane farmers, with Karnataka growers still seeking payment. A Balrampur Chini Mills Q2 FY27 call summary said sugar-segment PBIT rose 166% year-on-year to ₹140 crore on stronger volumes and realizations, while distillery margins were squeezed by a three-year freeze on ethanol procurement prices despite a 16% cane FRP hike. Management cited a 2025-26 inventory drawdown, expected 2026-27 production declines in Maharashtra and Karnataka on El Niño (Uttar Pradesh stable), a 10 lakh tonne government TRQ, and a possible need for 2.5–3 million tonnes of imports. They expect firm domestic prices over the next year and called ₹50/kg a bearish marker. ISMA was quiet.
In Brazil, Industrial Info put the 2026/27 cane crop at 705.2 million tonnes, up 4.7%, with ethanol output up 11.7% as mills favor ethanol over sugar. A low-reach post said Paranaguá finished a 77,000-tonne bulk shipment on the Iolcos Legacy, called the port’s largest single-ship sugar cargo (loaded early Monday). UNICA crush commentary was scarce.
Thailand’s Energy Minister Eknat Promphan floated making E20 the standard petrol grade and possibly phasing out Gasohol 91, explicitly to raise demand for ethanol from sugarcane and cassava.
Among importers, Migori cane farmers in Kenya sought sugar-board election reforms, mobile weighbridges, and curbs on imports; a retail survey put 1 kg packs at KSh 145–159. EU and China were quiet.