My personal thoughts and views based on this weekend developments

On Friday, Donald Trump's verbal escalation and threats started well before the crude oil price spiked - a spike that occurred in the last minutes of after-hours trading, on volumes that would not have impacted the price that much at another time of day. Furthermore, similar threats by Trump occurred many times before, including during the last week, without triggering a price reaction of this magnitude. I personally believe that what happened in the last minutes of crude oil trading on Friday was an insider trade. Notice this: we saw similar threats before (especially recently), but this was the very first time post-failed MOU that the US State Department, along with those of other countries like the UK, issued an alert to their citizens suggesting they evacuate while flights were still available, following Trump's public threats. Follow me here: considering Trump has ZERO element of surprise in his favour, because Iran is clearly closely tracking every single move of US and its allies' military assets in the region, and that, from a military perspective, Iran is now in an even stronger position than before (objectively speaking), the US State Department would not have issued an official security alert just as part of an elaborate bluff. This makes me believe the attack plan is already in motion, with Trump "pausing" on Saturday rather than waiting until right before crude oil resumes trading at 6 pm EST on Sunday, as usual. This move is not aimed at truly finding a peace agreement with Iran, but rather at throwing a bone to US allies in the region (especially KSA) that still hope to find a diplomatic solution, and at giving time to US citizens left in the region to evacuate. From a strategic perspective, Iran's tactic of gradually eroding US military capabilities - targeting supply lines and assets on the ground - is clearly working, since US CENTCOM did not even retaliate to the last round of attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and ships trying to cross the SoH under US military escort. From a public opinion perspective, this tactic is also working in Iran’s favor due to the ballooning direct costs (military expenses) and indirect costs (higher oil prices), which are increasingly becoming a hot political topic ahead of the US midterm elections. Another thing you should not forget is that the US cannot accept any form of Iranian official control over the SoH because that would set a dangerous precedent, bringing more countries around global strategic chokepoints like the Malacca or Bosphorus Strait to consider similar forms of control. This is also a form of control that GCC countries cannot accept, because their major economic lifeline would be effectively under Iranian control, which could, at will, choke and weaken their economies, creating major damage without the need to fire a single rocket. Trump’s only option is one powerful, quick bombing attack that can turn the balance of power back in his favour and officially end the war before the midterm elections. The US military cannot do this alone; it needs the active involvement of allies with attack capabilities that are still almost intact, like KSA and Israel. From a military perspective, the chances of success of such an action are very low, but not zero. This is why I believe Trump, who thinks like a businessman and not like a statesman, will take the chance to roll the dice and try their luck. However, I do not think Iran has been overstating its rockets, drones, and long-range ballistic missile stockpile - a stockpile that (don’t forget) is stored deep underneath mountains that can resist even a tactical nuke attack. But if the US is quick to close access to those mountains, Iran won’t be able to get weapons out to retaliate, exploiting the only Achilles' heel of the IRGC. Since the IRGC realized that its strength can also be turned into a tactical weakness, it activated its military proxies in the region. So, differently from the first round of military confrontation, Iran will likely pursue asymmetric warfare via proxies if a large-scale attack is successful in impairing its offensive capabilities (again, low chances, but not zero). To conclude, I personally think an attack is coming, also because Trump knows the world is running out of crude oil reserves, and that shortages hitting in the middle of the midterm campaign can give huge leverage to the Dems. If both the House and Senate are flipped, the chances of a successful impeachment of Donald Trump are very high. This is what I believe Iran is pursuing as well, since it has lost any trust in negotiating with Trump and the team, and is looking to engage the next President - who will have a strong incentive to stop any military confrontation and find a peaceful agreement from which Iran will be able to extract big concessions compared to the past.