$MP and the bet on Magnets
If you look up charts of demand for magnets you'll notice one thing, even the most conservative projects or estimates show an incredible demand for them with a massive shortage in supply. It's hard to find another material that has this kind of demand especially if you are bullish on the future with electric and hybrid vehicles, wind energy, and humanoid robots.
Currently the biggest market and demand is from electric vehicles through 2030 but if you expand the time horizon another decade to 2030 to 2040 you are looking at a market even larger with humanoid robots.
Elon Musk is wild with his estimates but the amount of humanoids he expects that we'll see by 2040 (10 billion robots) would 186x time the global supply of magnet production and make $MP 20x (would be nice but Elon is quite aggressive on the claims).
Bullish outlooks expect magnet demand to grow 84% by 2035 in just it's base case. 147% if humanoids become a thing.
The new 10X magnet plant targets 10,000 metric tons a year by 2028. The DoD has committed to buy 100% of its output for 10 years and guarantees $140 million a year in EBITDA, escalating 2% annually.
This kind of guarantee means that as long as they are mining the magnets they'll be not only growing revenue but being cash flow positive and have a built in buyer. If the US government is this worried about not having enough they clearly see the demand.