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GDX - Weekly Chart Cycles

• The longer cycles from the weekly chart are pointing down.
• So, a potential bounce suggested by the daily cycle composite is likely a counter-trend move.
• I only trade counter-trend moves when I watch the instrument daily and have a reliable EW count, and possibly scalp when I get cycle price projections.
• But as a general principle, one should look to take position when both daily and weekly chart cycles point in the same direction.

$CMPS - Fundamentals are a lot more speculative but the TA looks really good. Long term breaking out and one analyst even has $70+ targets.

This is a huge gamble as it's non revenue BUT if they get FDA approval or are able to go to commercial market and the results are good this quickly becomes a monster of a company. There could be a lot of push back by big pharma and there's a lot of risks on top of scheduling the drugs.

They've got 500 million to work with in cash, cash burn much slower, and it seems like they are positioned well to have a semi productive 2026/2027. Another Trump tweet or White House pushing more for rescheduling could obviously cause more hype.

Plan: 1% position on the breakout in case it never comes lower. Next play would be a 2% buy if we get way lower in the green and sit on it long term. The 3rd buy would be on momentum out of the buy zone or confirmation that it's got approval or massive insider buying/news shows up.

$UUP - LEVEL 3 TRADE - This is an ETF with dividends that goes up when the US dollar gets stronger relatively. I've recently posted about different levels and this would be considered a Level 3 Trade (most probably won't take this trade). It's a SLOW mover and upside is about 8 to 10% over a year or longer. Position size is small on purpose, it's just to track. Real size for those with larger capital would be much larger.

Long term hold, large position size, and for those that have larger capital to sit on it. Those trading and growing an account probably do not want to take this trade.

https://app.slice-app.io/posts/a2048312-1dec-48ab-b00d-bec78939981c

I'm only going 1% on this trade because I don't want it to take up a large chunk of the portfolio so that I can't share other trades. This is a long term boring trade and those with limited capital probably will want to stick to the actual trades unless they are fine having money sit and do nothing/slowly go up for a while.

I think the US d

S&P 500 New Highs vs New Lows % (monthly)

We’re seeing clear range compression — the swings are getting smaller.

This is classic late-cycle behavior: fewer stocks participating in the rally, even as the major indexes make new highs.

Narrow breadth + extreme concentration = higher risk.

Worth watching closely, it will break out of this triangle, eventually.

Gold (GC) - Cycles

·         A combination of Short, Long, and Very-Long cycles suggests down.

·         The nominal 40D cycle will likely dominate short-term swings up and down.

Bitcoin - Cycles

• L + VL cycles suggest higher toward mid-July, then down again.
• BTC is trying to get back inside the 83-TD channel, which would be a bullish development.

SOX had a weekly DeMark Sequential-9 sell this week

·         Could it mean something? Yes.

·         Could it be early? Yes, sometimes it is early, but usually a correction follows.

Semiconductors and AI-Related Stocks Dominate S&P 500 Gains

Semiconductors Special (to follow)

SOX has never been this extended above its 200-month moving average.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) formed a doji on Friday.

A doji candlestick often signals indecision or a pause, but after an extended trend, it can also indicate a potential reversal.

Where is Crude Oil (CL) headed?

Are we seeing a bullish or bearish triangle?

I'll post the latest cycle analysis later. It may provide hints.

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator pushed higher in Extreme Sell