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Oil (CL) Daily Chart Cycles + Potential H&S

• Daily cycles point to a cycle low toward October
• Potential H&S pattern, far from confirmed, but below the neckline, CL could target 60-70, TBD

URA (Uranium ETF)

• Long-term cycles indicate down into 2027
• Potential H&S pattern, decisively below the neckline, and it should target 36-37

The 28-Year Cycle in the U.S. Stock Market.

This dominant time cycle was the driving force behind the last two secular "lost decades" in equities:
The stagflationary 1970s
The Dot-Com / GFC crash of the early 2000s

As mapped below, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the cliff of another major down-phase.

Time is running out for this macro expansion.

Note: this cycle is not for market timing, but for long-term picture.

The Buffett Indicator is flashing a historic warning.
While retail investors chase the late-cycle momentum, Berkshire Hathaway has quietly built a record-breaking bunker of liquidity.

Berkshire's cash, cash equivalents, and T-bills are now knocking on the door of $397.4 Billion. They have been net sellers of equities for 14 consecutive quarters.

When you look at the two charts below, the motive becomes crystal clear. At a 233% Market Cap-to-GDP ratio, the market is sitting at the most structurally overvalued reading in modern financial history.

Warren Buffett famously called this metric "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

Today, both representations of the data show the exact same extreme:
Chart 1: Standard view puts us deep into "Significantly Overvalued" territory at 233%.
Chart 2: The regression trendline view shows the market sits more than 2 Standard Deviations above historical norms.

This isn't just theory—it's actionable macro reality. It expl

A potential long at the daily open, stoploss at yesterday's low, target Liquidity at 80k

100 Years of U.S. Equity Cycles: Are We Facing a Generational Turning Point?

The secular super-cycle wave (III) has been building since the absolute ashes of the 1929 market crash. Today, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the terminal completion of Cycle-degree Wave V.

Price has recently pushed above the critical multi-decade upper channel line connecting the 1929 and 2000 Dot-Com peaks.

Consensus calls this the birth of a new, endless bull run. But Elliott Wave principles warn of a far different outcome: The Classic Channel Throwover.

If history and structural guidelines hold:

·         A sharp reversal back inside the channel is imminent.

·         A prolonged, multi-year Wave (IV) correction will follow.

·         The silver lining? A massive 50-year Wave (V) generational buying opportunity awaits on the other side.

"Every great cycle must come to an end."

This Analysis will blow your mind

I hear every day that owning stocks and hard assets will protect you from inflation.

Or earnings are going to be great -> stock will be much higher.

If you believe in this, think again. Let’s examine how stocks performed in the past during inflationary periods.

The Inflation Rate in the 1970s - The 1970s was structurally defined by "stagflation," punctuated by two massive double-digit inflation supply shocks (the 1973–74 OPEC oil embargo and the 1979 energy crisis).

• Average Inflation Rate (Decade Average): ~6.8% to 7.4% (depending on whether you look at the PCE deflator or the headline Consumer Price Index). This was nearly triple the rate of the prior two decades.
• The Trajectory: Inflation started the decade at a warm 5.7% in 1970, skyrocketed to a painful peak of 12.2% in 1974, cooled briefly to 4.8% in 1976, and then surged back into a massive secular cycle peak of 13.5% in 1980.

S&P 500 Earnings Growth in the 1970s - This is where the major "macro twist"

TAOUSD BIttensor Analysis: Monthly and Weekly

Bittensor was a request in the Group Chat I figure I'd tackle

As you know, I dabbled in some alts and if it wasn't for how strong ONDO as done for me I would be once again regretting my decision around alts

Altcoins are so much a swing and a miss for me, but when I hit, I tend to find the best of a bull run

Last bull market examples I got in on PEPE extremely early and then called that insane FET run due to the emergence of AI at the time

Alts have kind of done nothing since, but I've made a couple calls that they would during the same timeframe. At one point I gave up, and that was smart because that's when we had that October 10 bloodbath

Since then though I have mostly avoided alts until recently and it was ONDO, LTC, and LINK

TAO is very popular so I get the request. But at the moment it looks like mostly sideways consolidation still

The monthly RSI looks pretty good and the ADX is rising but needs to get above 20. The +DI is though so that's g

US-Iran Deal, Update #1

IWM Monthly - Big breakout underway after multi-year consolidation

SPX Cycles - Short + Long

·         Less reliable short cycles still point down into next week, then up into the first week of June.

·         The latter aligns with early-month positive seasonality.

$BTC Update

This is one of those times where it pays to be patient and wait for the market to stablize and the entry to present itself. We know there is a major hotspot of liquidity in the 74-75k range (you can see it on coinglass or MMT) and so waiting for that liquidity to be taken and for the market to react is going to be key. We don't really want to be trying to catch this knife to nail the bottom. We want to wait for all the damage to be done and for large buyers to step in so that we can join after them.

If you look at the 2nd and 3rd images attached, you will see that we are simply not seeing any real buying volume come in here on this dump just yet. If we compare it to the last big dump to 60k, you can clearly see the big buy volume come in after the dump had finished. Thats the same thing we are looking for here at this level.

Let's keep watching for it and remain patient.

Microcap Season for Stocks?
Looking like the Sub Billion marketcap list is starting to take off. Liquidity might be starting to work it's way down and seeing a lot more of these start to turn green means I'll be spending some more time digging deeper into the ones I think look the best.

$KULR doing the best so far, will see what other gems might be lurking in the list.