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SPX Technical Analysis


1. The August peak was accompanied by notable divergences in the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) and RSI.

2. $NYSI, the swing trend indicator, is still pointing downward.

3. After breaking below the middle Keltner and the June high technical support with a doji candle, SPX bounced back to the middle Keltner.

4. This was a sort of mini bear trap.

5. Ideally, the next target is still the lower Keltner and the 50D MA.

6. Convincingly above the middle Keltner, SPX could target the upper Keltner.


XLI Cycles

  • XLI is oversold on the daily chart
  • Daily chart cycles indicate it is due for a bounce
  • My guess is that it needs a B up and a C down into Q4'26
  • Not oversold on the weekly, which shows a cycle trough in Q2'27, shared with the daily chart composite
  • At this point, it is not clear whether the Q2'27 cycle trough will be a higher or a lower low.


SPX Technical Analysis

§  The August peak was accompanied by notable divergences in the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) and RSI.

§  $NYSI, the swing trend indicator, is still pointing downward.

§  SPX gapped below the middle Keltner again and the June high technical support, which is short-term bearish; It closed the August gap.

§  The next targets are the lower Keltner line and the 50-day moving average.

§  It formed a doji on today, but since it is in a downtrend, it can be considered a pause before continuation down.


Advancers-Decliners

  • Only Energy and Consumer Staples sectors have positive breadth, the latter just barely
  • I could not call this bullish

IMPORTANT - Those of you who followed these trade ideas should start considering taking profits

TLT Cycle Target

  • This is the only target, just barely generated this morning but the day is not over; it can be invalidated, need to see how it will close; no other targets

Gold and silver are breaking down, and the miners are where you can see it clearly.


GDXU, the leveraged miner fund, has broken under its key moving averages. That's the tell. When the leveraged vehicle goes first, it isn't the metal being repriced. It's the leverage coming out.


Gold has seen a large speculative buildup over the past few weeks. Negative momentum flushes that out, and it's flushing now. The paper is unwinding, and it can move a lot further and faster than anyone expects, because leveraged positions don't get sold gradually.


None of that breaks the thesis. Central banks are still buying. The debt is still $40 trillion. Every road out of this still runs through more money getting created. The case for owning gold over the next few years hasn't changed at all this week.


What changed is that gold is trading as a momentum position right now instead of a monetary one, and momentum is going the wrong way.


The levels worth writing down are $4,000 on gold and $60 on silver. That's whe

... see more

I talked about Vilas Transcore Ltd below at 352.

It is still there ...

But I just visited AI Concall summary and am delighted to know they have expanded capacity by 3x and also started new products.

--Go through the AI Summary at Screener...read it...Want to buy or not....read it...

Apart from that what catch my eye was in point 2. and part C,

they say , C) HV Bushings – new entity (noteworthy strategic move)

  • Announced incorporation of a new entity to manufacture HV bushings 12 kV to 400 kV.
  • Vilas Transcore will hold 25% initially; rationale:
    • It is “strategically… a R&D project” and management did not want early-stage R&D losses to “impact on the balance sheet for the 1 or 2-year.”
    • Separate entity also enables potential JV/technology transfer: “we are discussing with two or three companies for the joint venture or technology transfer.”
  • Near-term plan/capex:
    • OIP bushing up to 145 kV targeted first.
    • Capex ~INR10 crores in FY27 for R&D/test labs; using a “readymade building” on rent.
    • RIP/RIS: paralle
... see more

Stock Market Breadth is Deteriorating

NYSE Advance-Decline Line (Common Stocks) has been declining since mid-August and broke convincingly below the 50D MA today.

The next target is the 200D MA, which provides support for bigger corrections.


XRP Weekly update
Time to add some crypto! This might not be the higher low bottom in XRP minute ii against the summer low, but I think it's very close and the time to add.

XRP

XRP

31 Aug

OPENLONG

Invested Capital

7%

Buying Price

1.370$

Current Price

-

ROI

0.00%