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Palladium is clearly the weakest out of the PMs. probably should have shorted this one over Silver in hingsight.


The move up in December looks corrective. So i think its likely that around 1400 gets retested


Also has 3D level 2 bearish exhaustion signal


stop loss at 1980

Bought 100%

just realised this never had a stop loss, got stopped out ages ago

PA

Palladium

5 Mar

CLOSEDSHORT

Invested Capital

2.1%

Selling Price

1896$

Buying Price

1651$

ROI

12.90%

Also short term VIX fear is outpacing long term fear. Massive warning signal

El Nino effect could re-rate in the water sector once again


Some of the Water, Environment & Sustainability Theme

1. Water Treatment & Purification
Jal Jeevan Mission and industrial effluent treatment mandates boost water tech demand.
- Key stocks to benefit: VA Tech Wabag, Ion Exchange, Thermax, IVRCL

2. Municipal Water Infrastructure

Smart city and piped water projects create large-scale municipal water investment.
- Key stocks to benefit: Kirloskar Brothers, KSB India, Pumpenbau (Flowserve), Xylem India

3. Effluent & Sewage Treatment
Environmental compliance norms and NAMAMI Gange drive sewage treatment capacity.
- Key stocks to benefit: VA Tech Wabag, Enviro Control Associates, Praj Industries, Suez India

4. Air Pollution Control
Industrial pollution norms and urban air quality mandates drive control system demand.
- Key stocks to benefit: Thermax, Forbes Marshall, CECO Environmental India, GEA India

5. Waste Management & Recycling
Extended Producer Responsibility and circular economy push waste

... see more

This looks like the top on SBET. 45m level 2 bearish exhaustion into resistance. I'm now fully allocated to the short. Average entry around 8.11

USDT.D breaking down. 7.2% is the key level to flip bearish on crypto. Still some juice left in this move today imho

$PM - Shorting with a pretty clear setup with a tight invalidation. 3% stop, 6% TP. Big tobacco which also owns a lot of vaping and smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouches. Don't usually like going against big tobacco but the chart is pretty clean for a short and some rumors of FDA might be changing some restrictions or bans. Some states like Washington have added a 100% nicotine tax.

Bought 100%

Almost taking out the target. Good to close here and lock in a nice clean trade.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International Inc.

4 Mar

CLOSEDSHORT

Invested Capital

10.1%

Selling Price

186.3$

Buying Price

177.0$

ROI

5.01%

There are many things that make me nervous about markets and positions at the moment. This has always been the case - which is why I try and rely on key indicators to drive decisions. At the moment, things like bond yields, currencies and memory pricing say nothing has changed - so I am changing nothing. The risk is that these indicators are lagging not leading - but they have managed to get me here. More than indicators, the politics still seems to encourage my inflationary positioning time will tell.

Will only trade some ratios intraday - Put ratios when market goes up and call ratios in case of downmove. Not looking to add further exposure. It's better to keep low exposure in such times (war is only escalating at the moment).



S&P 500: I Think The Stock Market Has Topped


Seriously. This could be a bad moment for the world that could possibly kick off a recession. If the S&P 500 drops, it could take down Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver with it


When there's a huge, fear-driven move, almost all markets sell off into cash, creating what's called a correlation one moment. It's because all assets instantly correlate to +1, because they're all dumping into dollars at once


So just because Bitcoin is looking bullish, this could be a catalyst that causes more selling in Bitcoin.


Price is struggling at the resistance boundary of a rising wedge shaped pattern. This could be an ending diagonal per Elliott Wave


Technicals appear to support this, following a perfected TD8 and TD9 sell setup. The RSI closing back below 70 will trigger selling. The LMACD is crossed bearish with a divergence. The Fisher Transform is showing the same behavior.


This is NOT good.


The one caveat. It's so early in the month these signals could be gone by the e

... see more

Gold 1h level 3 bullish exhaustion signal. I think it will push up to 5500 tomorrow

This was a really clean impulse on the NIKKEI. Looking for the retrace towards 56786 which lines up perfectly with 0.5% retracement and would be a bearish retest of that level.


That's the spot to start building shorts tomorrow!

There were a couple of questions re MSTR and COIN targets for potential shorts. I will post it here just incase people also want targets to close long positions on the bounce


I reckon MSTR can at least get back to 174 for the gap fill


COIN look for bearish retest of macro 0.786 Fib at 212