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It pleases me that Siltronics (WAF GY) is now also confirming the break out in SUMCO. I always prefer to invest in industries where all players are moving the same way...

VXX Cycle Price Projections

• VXX almost satisfied the 40D cycle (1^st following chart) and is trying to find support at the 80D cycle FLD; one can argue that VXX got close enough to the 40D cycle target to consider it satisfied for practical purposes.
• If the signal line crosses below the 80D FLD it will confirm an 80D cycle target of below 23.5.
• However, considering that short-term cycles are rising, it is plausible to expect that VXX might bounce from around this level, or from a somewhat lower level within the 40D target range, without confirming the 80D cycle target; plausible does not mean guaranteed, as a better-than-expected news from the US-Iran weekend negotiations can cause a significant VXX drop.

$ALGO Short Update - Took 75% of the trade off after TP1 and still holding on to the remainder as we approach TP2.

I will be leaving a runner on, even after taking another chunk off at TP2.

This has been a long hold but its still playing out as we originally thought it might.

Happy Friday.

CPI came in at 3.3% annual, biggest jump in nearly two years. But look under the hood. That's almost entirely energy. The 0.9% month-over-month headline was driven by a 10.6% spike in energy costs. Core came in at 0.2% month over month. That's clean. The base economy is not overheating on its own. Services aren't spiraling. This is an oil story, not a broad inflation story, and the market is reading it that way. As long as core stays contained, the rate hike talk stays theoretical.

Consumer sentiment just dropped. Michigan preliminary for April fell 6% to its lowest since December 2025. Short-run economic outlook plunged 14%. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% from 3.4%. Middle and higher income consumers with stock exposure got hit hardest. Two-thirds of the interviews were collected after the war started, so this is the first real read on how people are feeling with $4 gas and a war backdrop. Not great.

The bigger picture hasn't changed. Ceasefire is fragile.

Bitcoin BTCUSD Daily Bollinger Band/Ascending Triangle Breakout

If the daily closes strong above here, we can assume this is an actual breakout. Next resistance is $75,900 if we get above here

It should move fast for it to be a confirmed breakout.

However, there's still a strong risk:reward setup for a short here.

I am not going to give a direction and let you decide

Shorting/selling at resistance is always a good move. Lots of downside and risk/

Market is clearly resilient, volatile, and if this shows just a little more strength should recover a lot of lost ground and move to $80Ks fast.

However, if we are still in a bear market, and I am very confident we are, no matter what this leads to new lows.

The upside may also be fairly capped in a bear market

Either way, a break above resistance is notable especially if we get strength and volume.

Rejection is also significant. It will be 9 different daily candles rejected from this resistance level. Repeated rejections will have absorbed buyers if i

$S&P 500 - Loving the reaction to price and the rally but we just got a nice push up and closed up all those upper gaps creating a massive trail of lower gaps. The fractal of 2022 shows how common this can be and if we are starting a correction or bear market these kind of explosive moves are completely normal and expected. It's why shorting the market is so difficult because we could go lower and fill all those gaps but those shorting would have been stopped out or closed by now.

Eyes on Inflation Tomorrow - We are already expected to get some hotter than expected numbers so if they are even higher I think we could retrace some of this move. Market is probably already pricing in some hotter numbers but in these conditions it seems like people are more reactionary and jumpy than normal.

Think long term holds if buying - It's easy to get FOMO seeing all the green and things going up that's usually how the bull traps start here in a midterm year. If positioning for long term holds not a b

NQ Micro-EW count

• Potential triangle for iv of (c)
• If correct, there should be a thrust from the triangle, then a reversal

Mid-week Trade Alert

Factset research systems (FDS) – Double bottom long  

- ENTRY PRICE: - BUY on Tomorrow’s (Thursday) OPEN $230.00 or Better.  

- 1^ST TARGET PRICE: $248.76 – 2^nd Target – $257.27 – 3^rd – $268.33

- STOP LOSS: close below – $201.89 or trade below $196.26

- Bobby -

Bond markets are responding to fiscal policy. For the first time in 3 years, Swiss and US bond yields are diverging. This should be bullish for Swiss Franc

BTC Update 4.7.26

Big green day today so let's break down the levels to watch and what we may see $BTC set up in the coming day or two.