The latest public Slice posts, articles and creator updates.
IREDA - Earnings over with and there is vol crush but not as much as it usually happens post earnings in most counters.
Initiated vol short in Feb - 125/150 strangle short for ~6 credit. Options are illiquid but that's my average fill (put side first because that's where liquidity is low).
Review for the week ahead
Focus for me this week is equities as they will drive the market once we get the decision on Wednesday regarding Trump's tariffs.
Nasdaq is shaping up pretty bad here imho, slowly condensing in this triangle formation, indicating volatiltiy compression. Once this breaks, up or down, it will be vicious. Obviously my bias is down.
It has consistently failed to break out from the RSI DTL. If the tariffs do get struck down then there could be potential for that to change but I think its unlikely. They tried to push the market higher into the decision Friday, and the fact it got delayed until Wednesday kind of showed everyone's hand a little.
Considering the hurst cycle low arrives around 20th Jan and it is currently drifting around the highs, we should be pretty close to a strong move down!
Let's see what happens
Platinum and Palladium
Let it run baby! Let it run.
Worried about AI? As long as DRAM prices are rising, there seems little to worry about in my mind.
$ETH - Still have some sort of structure going for the OBV right now on the daily. Obviously the smaller more aggressive one we've seen in the past is ideal for signaling upside.
As mentioned before usually bottoms can take months, and in this case it seems no different. Still like having some exposure in case it breaks out but I'm not going to be pushing aggressively until we have conditions where it feels like money is falling from the trees.
Still choppy up and down price action on BTC
That liquidity pockets below is very likely to be hit before a chance at a breakout.
Matching some patterns I can see 2 paths if price wants to be bullish.
I will make a video later today to show the set ups that I see coming in the weeks ahead, I think we see ATH in March based upon the patterns
We will see
Ok, I am letting the metals bounce fm the lows and I remain disciplined with my scale down buying program. I am not chasing as this index rebalancing isn’t over yet. It will go on for a few more days
While talking with Slice management, on easy contact for subscribers, why my members has to ask me about their queries, they send me this Picture saying it is there on their account page...
Now let me know even after using CONTACT ACCESS and sending queries, what problem still persist?
Solid, quiet support right now - coming out of the overbought that we hadn't seen on the S&P 500 since October 27. So, still some caution...
It's not an issue with valuations that are the problem. It's any hiccups in liquidity that are directly tied to Treasury Auctions and Fed repo activity.
Eventually these valuations will compress... but that seems to be something well into summer... For now, start looking at the consumer defensives and the commodity producers that you want to own. We're moving into a speculative phase in these markets.
How the US controls Iraqi oil revenue:
When an oil delivery is made to a buyer, the money is transferred from the buyer’s account to the Iraqi account of the DFI in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
When the Iraqi's want THEIR money,the Iraqi Finance Ministry sends an invoice to the U.S. Treasury specifying how much and how that money will be spent in Iraq.
U.S. Treasury officials can either approve or reject this request. When the Treasury approves the request, a shipment of US dollar bills is then transferred by plane to Baghdad.
This happens each month. Note payment in cash.
RVNL - Brought the call spread 10 points down from 360/390 to 350/380.
$SPY - It's been a solid start to the year but historically when we make new all time highs there's a 1 to 3% correction. Lower gap sure enough is about 3%. It would probably feel pretty brutal and I don't know what the catalyst would be but I would be more likely to fire off bids there.
Best case this is a little breakout and re-test an we hold momentum but we are still mostly in ranging chop until proven otherwise. This is why I'm still moving slower and not just aping everything and holder to high targets.
Silver daily bearish engulfing candle forming
Exhausted on multiple timeframes. As I mentioned before wave iv should be a sharp zig zag given ii was an expanded flat
Logical place to go long would be 48.88 (weekly swing close) which also sits perfectly in the middle of the golden pocket between 0.5-0.618 retracement of the wave iii impulse
Chart of the Day
This is Michael Howell and Global Liquidity Index...
What do you notice? The U.S. is at the top... China is just... getting... started...
In typical cycles, after these tops, U.S. investors would typically shift to defensives (XLP), while speculation builds in metals and materials...
Meanwhile, China pumps and benefits... Metals. That copper chart since August is stunning. There is a lot of volatility ahead. But there's good reason to keep with momentum on SCCO and MLI moving forward with hard stops at key moving averages.
ZSL US is a bearish silver ETF - and it has been predictably poor. More unusually, shares outstanding has surged as its price has fallen. Do we need to see the bears give up before the silver price tops out?
