USDT.D breaking down. 7.2% is the key level to flip bearish on crypto. Still some juice left in this move today imho
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$PM - Shorting with a pretty clear setup with a tight invalidation. 3% stop, 6% TP. Big tobacco which also owns a lot of vaping and smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouches. Don't usually like going against big tobacco but the chart is pretty clean for a short and some rumors of FDA might be changing some restrictions or bans. Some states like Washington have added a 100% nicotine tax.
Bought 100%
Philip Morris International Inc.
4 Mar
SHORTInvested Capital
10.1%
Selling Price
186.3$
Buying Price
177.0$
ROI
5.01%
Looking for the final push up on JPN to go short
There are many things that make me nervous about markets and positions at the moment. This has always been the case - which is why I try and rely on key indicators to drive decisions. At the moment, things like bond yields, currencies and memory pricing say nothing has changed - so I am changing nothing. The risk is that these indicators are lagging not leading - but they have managed to get me here. More than indicators, the politics still seems to encourage my inflationary positioning time will tell.
Will only trade some ratios intraday - Put ratios when market goes up and call ratios in case of downmove. Not looking to add further exposure. It's better to keep low exposure in such times (war is only escalating at the moment).
S&P 500: I Think The Stock Market Has Topped
Seriously. This could be a bad moment for the world that could possibly kick off a recession. If the S&P 500 drops, it could take down Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver with it
When there's a huge, fear-driven move, almost all markets sell off into cash, creating what's called a correlation one moment. It's because all assets instantly correlate to +1, because they're all dumping into dollars at once
So just because Bitcoin is looking bullish, this could be a catalyst that causes more selling in Bitcoin.
Price is struggling at the resistance boundary of a rising wedge shaped pattern. This could be an ending diagonal per Elliott Wave
Technicals appear to support this, following a perfected TD8 and TD9 sell setup. The RSI closing back below 70 will trigger selling. The LMACD is crossed bearish with a divergence. The Fisher Transform is showing the same behavior.
This is NOT good.
The one caveat. It's so early in the month these signals could be gone by the e
Gold 1h level 3 bullish exhaustion signal. I think it will push up to 5500 tomorrow
This was a really clean impulse on the NIKKEI. Looking for the retrace towards 56786 which lines up perfectly with 0.5% retracement and would be a bearish retest of that level.
That's the spot to start building shorts tomorrow!
There were a couple of questions re MSTR and COIN targets for potential shorts. I will post it here just incase people also want targets to close long positions on the bounce
I reckon MSTR can at least get back to 174 for the gap fill
COIN look for bearish retest of macro 0.786 Fib at 212
Here comes the breakdown on FNGD on both price and RSI trendline
Big move up in risk now!
WULF looks like a rising wedge/ending diagonal. Longing this one because stop placement is so easy with clear level it is resting on
Sold 100%
TeraWulf Inc.
2 Mar
LONGInvested Capital
1.9%
Buying Price
16.07$
Selling Price
15.54$
ROI
-3.30%
Request a chart below:
So far asset prices are trading the way I expected them to trade... which is a good thing. If bond yields fell substantially, or the dollar rallied substantially I might get worried - but so far everything is moving as expected.
It's irritating that there is no vol expansion and it doesn't make much sense to initiate new trades given suppressed vols and still no clarity on the war. Will just hold on to existing trades.
Please post questions here, thanks