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Good move for Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) today. Here's what's on the Launchpad this evening. Mosaic with a nice move from the Hormuz situation improving. At the start of the year MOS saw its 8-ema break the 20 and run 30%. A name worth watching.
Will Commodities Contribute to the Next Inflationary Wave?
I posted earlier that several inflation metrics indicate inflation will rise into 2028, based on their cycles.
But the PPI All Commodities cycle analysis shows that commodities will not put pressure on PPI.
The question is which sectors will be the main drivers of inflation.
Inflation Rising Toward 2028
What would cause inflation to rise?
Most likely, it will not be commodities.
Copper
Time for Dr. Copper to take a break? Cycles say so.
Copper's Seasonality - May's spike defied Dr. Copper's seasonality, which is negative till November, but cycles anticipated this spike.
Welcome to my Slice Page! This is the place to be if you want a closer look at the way I navigate the markets, why I invest the way I do, and the tools and techniques I use to inform my trading decisions.
Markets are designed to go up. You don’t notice this if you zoom in too much, but a weekly or monthly chart will show you this principle clearly. Your bread gets more expensive over time, but so does a share of Apple, or the Bitcoin you’ve stored in a cold wallet – so why not take advantage of that?
Many people originally started investing because it was presented to them as their golden ticket out of their financial status at the time. You simply buy this company, or this altcoin – and you’ll be a trillionaire in the next three weeks, guaranteed!
By now you’ve likely figured out that things do not work that way. At least, not on a large scale. There are exceptions to this rule, but it is important to remember that’s exactly what they are; exceptions. You could get lucky – but it’s a t
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Oil (CL) Daily Chart Cycles + Potential H&S
- Daily cycles point to a cycle low toward October
- Potential H&S pattern, far from confirmed, but below the neckline, CL could target 60-70, TBD
URA (Uranium ETF)
- Long-term cycles indicate down into 2027
- Potential H&S pattern, decisively below the neckline, and it should target 36-37
Huawei continues to close the gap on the West:
Huawei statement below:
It's been a long journey, 6 years and 381 chips to be exact, but HUAWEI's He Tingbo explains how HUAWEI's high-end chips are now expected to feature a transistor density that is equivalent to 14 Å (1.4 nm) processes by 2031.
I expect to see it within 3 years based upon a conversation I had a few days ago
The 28-Year Cycle in the U.S. Stock Market.
This dominant time cycle was the driving force behind the last two secular "lost decades" in equities:
The stagflationary 1970s
The Dot-Com / GFC crash of the early 2000s
As mapped below, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the cliff of another major down-phase.
Time is running out for this macro expansion.
Note: this cycle is not for market timing, but for long-term picture.
The Buffett Indicator is flashing a historic warning.
While retail investors chase the late-cycle momentum, Berkshire Hathaway has quietly built a record-breaking bunker of liquidity.
Berkshire's cash, cash equivalents, and T-bills are now knocking on the door of $397.4 Billion. They have been net sellers of equities for 14 consecutive quarters.
When you look at the two charts below, the motive becomes crystal clear. At a 233% Market Cap-to-GDP ratio, the market is sitting at the most structurally overvalued reading in modern financial history.
Warren Buffett famously called this metric "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
Today, both representations of the data show the exact same extreme:
Chart 1: Standard view puts us deep into "Significantly Overvalued" territory at 233%.
Chart 2: The regression trendline view shows the market sits more than 2 Standard Deviations above historical norms.
This isn't just theory—it's actionable macro reality. It expl
A potential long at the daily open, stoploss at yesterday's low, target Liquidity at 80k
100 Years of U.S. Equity Cycles: Are We Facing a Generational Turning Point?
The secular super-cycle wave (III) has been building since the absolute ashes of the 1929 market crash. Today, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the terminal completion of Cycle-degree Wave V.
Price has recently pushed above the critical multi-decade upper channel line connecting the 1929 and 2000 Dot-Com peaks.
Consensus calls this the birth of a new, endless bull run. But Elliott Wave principles warn of a far different outcome: The Classic Channel Throwover.
If history and structural guidelines hold:
· A sharp reversal back inside the channel is imminent.
· A prolonged, multi-year Wave (IV) correction will follow.
· The silver lining? A massive 50-year Wave (V) generational buying opportunity awaits on the other side.
"Every great cycle must come to an end."
This Analysis will blow your mind
I hear every day that owning stocks and hard assets will protect you from inflation.
Or earnings are going to be great -> stock will be much higher.
If you believe in this, think again. Let’s examine how stocks performed in the past during inflationary periods.
The Inflation Rate in the 1970s - The 1970s was structurally defined by "stagflation," punctuated by two massive double-digit inflation supply shocks (the 1973–74 OPEC oil embargo and the 1979 energy crisis).
- Average Inflation Rate (Decade Average): ~6.8% to 7.4% (depending on whether you look at the PCE deflator or the headline Consumer Price Index). This was nearly triple the rate of the prior two decades.
- The Trajectory: Inflation started the decade at a warm 5.7% in 1970, skyrocketed to a painful peak of 12.2% in 1974, cooled briefly to 4.8% in 1976, and then surged back into a massive secular cycle peak of 13.5% in 1980.
S&P 500 Earnings Growth in the 1970s - This is where the major "macro twist"
