No major positioning changes in the last week; although the DCA process continues. We added to BTC and S&P exposure, while also increasing ONDO exposure. I was able to scoop a teeny-tiny position in JTO before it started moving again as well, but it's so tiny that I didn't even bother to report it on here just yet - which means it's also nothing to celebrate. If it runs from here, I might just be able to take the wife to dinner once, nothing more. Anyway, we've got some exciting things happening in the market again, so let's have a look at whats going on - and I'll circle back to how I'm reacting to it - if at all. First things first, Michael Saylor is in a bit of a pickle. The mess surrounding STRC is putting pressure on the market that we'd have been better off without. STRC is down 25-30% from before this situation started, and the further it goes down, the more pressure it puts on Strategy to sell BTC. It's nothing Saylor can't get out of (buy back STRC to reduce the dividend obligations, though that itself eats into the cash reserve they're already short on - so might mean selling some BTC), and it doesn't really affect BTC in the long-run, but it's something to keep an eye on nonetheless. We've seen relative strength in Altcoins lately - it wouldn't surprise me if that is partially because STRC is causing BTC to underperform at the moment. All in all, interesting to follow just to know why the market is moving the way it does - but nothing to make me change course. DCA continues, STRC in trouble or not.
This STRC situation puts the market on edge, which has BTC slowly bleeding lower. As a result, we just put in a weekly close below $60k, for the first time since 2024 - also closing below the 200w MA for the first time since 2023. All it means to me is that we're getting closer to the bottom, which is exactly why I'm DCA-ing. Will amp up the buys if we get $52k and/or the closer we get to October. Systematically executing the plan, and so far, the price of Bitcoin is playing along nicely.
Weekly & daily charts
On the daily, I'm seeing buying interest despite the STRC situation. Price keeps showing wicks into $59k, with a daily bullish divergence locked in as well. So while the weekly shows a breakdown - the daily indicates we might actually get some relief soon. All hinges on STRC and what Saylor does next. We can count on him to do something crazy though - so let's just see what we get, and I'll stick to the plan in the meantime.
I mentioned relative strength on Altcoins earlier on, so it was a matter of time before we zoomed in on that a little. You guys know about HYPE, ONDO & JTO which I have mentioned before. HYPE is holding well in my opinion, still holding in the same consolidative structure above previous cycle highs. Feels very much like a 'recharge before the next leg higher' type situation. ONDO is a different story, it's weaker, but still holds a good structure on the higher timeframes. I'd have invalidated this one already if it were a trade, but as discussed when I opened this position - it's more of a fundamental bet on RWA doing well in the bull, and that bet hasn't changed. Chart still looks sound on the higher-timeframes as well, so just letting it run and using the discount to accumulate some more here and there, including a small buy today. Then there's JTO, the coin I was able to buy just very little of before it started moving. Just about 20% of what I like to have as a small altcoin position. Nothing noteworthy, but it's ran 15% from my entry already - so just letting it run and seeing if I can't get another opportunity to load up some more. Thesis is intact, just a shame I didn't buy more before it started running. It happens, so we just stick to the plan, never chase a bag. The reason why I don't chase is simple, there will always be another opportunity. One of those opportunities could be coming soon in the form of EIGEN. I attached the chart, looks like an accumulation structure that just broke out & now retests it. Price currently sits on the 100d EMA, usually a good setup for higher. No position as of yet since I'd rather wait for BTC to decide what's next - but again an interesting project both chart-wise and fundamentally. Monitoring closely over the next weeks. My next steps I'll keep it simple, I'm continuing to DCA. Primarily the weekly BTC & monthly S&P buys - but also trying to DCA some more on ONDO & JTO. Letting HYPE ride until $100 where I plan to take my first profits. Paying close attention to EIGEN, might want to take on a small position there as well. Not much to update in stocks other than that my DCA from last week seems nicely timed, the S&P is bouncing from the 50EMA and looks ready to push higher once more. Not that it matters - the time horizon on this position is years, not weeks. Anyway - that's it from me today. Hope it helps! Cheers