Rotation, Rotation, ..., How much Longer SPX Cap-Weighted vs Equal-Weight – Cycle Analysis The cycles of the SPY / RSP ratio have done a great job forecasting the relative performance of SPY versus RSP , which led me to suggest 2+ months ago a rotation from momentum big-cap stocks into the broader market. Over the past couple of months, SPY has underperformed due to weakness in semis/AI, while the broader market remained relatively strong. According to cycle analysis, RSP (and the broader market) is now expected to underperform until around Oct '26.
Published Aug 02, 2026Updated Aug 02, 20262 min read
Rotation, Rotation, ..., How much Longer SPX Cap-Weighted vs Equal-Weight – Cycle Analysis The cycles of the SPY / RSP ratio have done a great job forecasting the relative performance of SPY versus RSP , which led me to suggest 2+ months ago a rotation from momentum big-cap stocks into the broader market. Over the past couple of months, SPY has underperformed due to weakness in semis/AI, while the broader market remained relatively strong. According to cycle analysis, RSP (and the broader market) is now expected to underperform until around Oct '26.
