AJB Capital

One of the few names on our LaunchPad this morning that isn't an energy stock is Maximus (MMS).

Maximus is a government services company. It runs health and human services programs for federal and state agencies. Not a name a lot of people follow.

The setup is pretty clean. The 8-day is about to cross the 20-day. On the weekly, this is sitting on a level that has held in previous years. There was support around 54 going back to 2022, and even in the COVID lows it only dipped below that level briefly.

The stock has been beaten down and is trying to work its way back to equilibrium. If it gets back to where it broke down from in March, around 72.50, that's a 25% move from here. The risk and reward is there.

You could buy shares at market, around 57.65. Set your stop down around 52.50, just under the recent low at 52.73. That's about a 9% stop. Defined risk, and a move that's worth it if it makes it.

If you don't want to risk the full 9%, this has almost a $2 ATR, so you could set your stop up

We're coming in lower, and it's broader than it's been all week.

Earlier this week the selling was just the AI names. The chips got hit, but money rotated into everything else and the market held up fine. Overnight, that changed. This morning it's most of the board. The average stock is lower, and about the only green left is energy, with oil up on the Iran headlines, plus a few defensive names.

The bigger trend still hasn't broken, though. The longer-term picture on the S&P and small caps is pointed up, and the Nasdaq's roughly flat. What rolled over is the short-term momentum, and it rolled hard. So this is a real pullback inside an uptrend that's still standing. Not a breakdown, at least not yet.

Small caps are holding up best this morning, so this isn't a full run for the exits. It's the crowded winners, the AI trade, getting sold the hardest.

Today is the test. For two weeks, every dip got bought. Either that happens again once we open, or it doesn't and the selling starts eating into

The OILU still has to reclaim 35 before this is worth anything. That level keeps sliding lower each day as it sells off, so chasing a fixed price is pointless right now.

We'd normally look for the oversold entry on the hourly. But the hourly keeps lagging lower every morning. That's exactly what we're trying to avoid. With a geopolitical event this size driving it, we're leaning on the daily. We want a real, blown-off oversold reading there before we act.

This is where anchored VWAP does the work. Drop the anchor on the last big oversold low on the hourly chart. That line becomes your trigger.

While price is below it, you stay out. When price pushes back above it, check the MACD. You want the MACD line crossing up through its signal line, with the histogram bars growing to the upside. That's how you know momentum is building and it's not just a dead-cat bounce.

Price back above the anchored line, plus that MACD cross, is the green light. We're not there yet. So we sit and watch.

The OILU is