AJB Capital
AJB Capital
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AJB Capital

Stock
Short Term
Indices

Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

434Posts
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18%Best ROI
joined

Joined on 16th December 2025

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Baltimore, Maryland

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Two Names to Keep on Your Radar

If you follow AI or semis, you already know ASML. They’re the quiet monopoly sitting in the middle of the whole thing.

Most of the names people talk about, Nvidia, TSM, Intel, the hyperscalers, they all rely on ASML’s machines. There isn’t a real substitute. If you want cutting-edge chips, you go through them.

Those EUV machines are massive, complicated, and priced close to half a billion dollars each. A big fab can need eight or ten, sometimes more, so the order sizes get stupid fast. That’s why ASML has the leverage it does, especially with the U.S. leaning on them not to ship the top end gear to China.

What I like to watch next is the stuff that trades around ASML.

Photronics (PLAB) is a critical piece of the supply chain. Different business, but the tape tends to rhyme. When ASML runs, PLAB usually follows. When ASML gaps and PLAB lags, that spread often closes.

The other one is VAT Group (VACNY). They make ultra-specialized valves used in this equipment.

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Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today


TACO Trade in Full Effect – Trump cancelled tariffs on eight European countries after the Davos speech. The "Tariffs Are Cancelled, Obviously" rally is lifting everything. Question now is whether this holds or if we get another headline reversal.


Greenland Deal Details Emerging – NATO's Rutte says no transfer of sovereignty. Reports suggest "small pockets of land" similar to the UK-Cyprus arrangement and that it's still fluid. German Finance Minister says don't get hopes up too soon. More meetings today could shift sentiment either way.


JGBs Finally Stabilizing – Nikkei up nearly 2%, snapping a five-day losing streak. Japanese bonds finding a floor after this week's carnage. The carry trade unwind pressure is easing for now, but watch if this holds.


Fed Chair Announcement Imminent – Trump says he has "two or three left in mind." Polymarket has Warsh at 44%, Rieder at 31%, Waller at 14%. Announcement could come any day. A hawkish pick would shift ra

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With momentum negative, we have to look at our portfolio and ask five questions today...


Question 2: Who is the marginal seller if this gets worse?


Prices are not set by long-term investors in moments of stress.

They’re set by whoever has to sell next.


That’s leverage.

That’s risk models.

That’s volatility control, margin calls, and forced deleveraging.


If a stock is owned by players who sell mechanically when volatility rises, fundamentals don’t matter at the onset. The selling has to finish first.


Our next question will focus on hidden assumptions inside our investments.