AJB Capital
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AJB Capital
Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.
434Posts
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18%Best ROI
Joined on 16th December 2025
Baltimore, Maryland
Gold approaching $5,600/oz - Spot gold nearly hit $5,600, with silver also posting a new all-time high at $120.43/oz. The move came post-FOMC on dollar weakness.
Copper breaks out to $14,120/t - 3M LME copper smashed through its prior ATH on AI infrastructure demand and pre-Lunar New Year positioning.
Trump considering Iran strike - CNN sources say Trump is weighing a large-scale military strike on Iran over stalled nuclear talks. Brent crude hit four-month highs above $69/bbl on the news.
Meta posts record sales, guides higher - Q4 EPS $8.88 vs $8.19 expected. Q1 revenue guide of $53.5-56.5B crushed the $51.3B estimate. Stock up 7.5% pre-market
Microsoft drops on cloud concerns - Despite beating on EPS ($5.16 vs $3.92), Azure growth disappointed and AI spending spooked investors. Down 6.4% pre-market.
SAP drags European tech - Cloud backlog metrics disappointed badly. Stock down 14%, pulling the DAX down 1.2%.
Fed holds, removes employment risk language - Rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. Mira
Watch Photronics Today (PLAB)
ASML shares up over 4% this morning after orders pretty much smashed estimates. Record Q4 orders came in nearly double what was expected. So the CapEx spend is clearly not having any issues when it comes to ASML.
That's always been our thesis. This is a pure monopoly. If the US wants to spend money, print money, and hand it out to keep this AI race against China competitive, a lot of that capital winds up in ASML's coffers.
Photronics is a supplier to ASML and they trade pretty much in tandem, just with a little bit of a lag. You might get a pullback today on ASML if it turns into a sell the news situation, maybe back to 1500 or so. But after that I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps cruising higher.
And if that's the case, Photronics hasn't caught up yet. Clear as day on the chart. ASML moved, PLAB didn't. So you've got a little arb play here.
This is about to become my new favorite thing. ASML moves, PLAB doesn't, jump in. Take a call a couple weeks out to a mon
This is what we want to see over the next few days if the Fed is providing support to the BOJ on the yen.
If the Japanese have been selling foreign assets because of the situation over there, the Fed stepping in is basically telling them to stop selling. Stop selling bonds, stop selling US insurance companies. Here, we'll give you some money, we'll help you out.
If that's happening right now while everything else is going haywire and everybody's paying attention to the shiny object, this is what AIG will do. Price goes higher, the 8 crosses above the 20. That's the classic setup for a momentum reversal and a nice move higher while everybody else is still confused about what's happening.
This is the stuff we look out for. When we see a chart setting up, we make note of it, add it to the watch list, and keep one eye on it. We need 20 eyes. One on the kid, the other 19 on all these setups we find during the week.
Let's watch each other's backs. Ten of us, that's 20 eyes. Somebody keep an eye
