AJB Capital

Top 10 Things Traders Need to Watch Today

TACO Trade in Full Effect – Trump cancelled tariffs on eight European countries after the Davos speech. The "Tariffs Are Cancelled, Obviously" rally is lifting everything. Question now is whether this holds or if we get another headline reversal.

Greenland Deal Details Emerging – NATO's Rutte says no transfer of sovereignty. Reports suggest "small pockets of land" similar to the UK-Cyprus arrangement and that it's still fluid. German Finance Minister says don't get hopes up too soon. More meetings today could shift sentiment either way.

JGBs Finally Stabilizing – Nikkei up nearly 2%, snapping a five-day losing streak. Japanese bonds finding a floor after this week's carnage. The carry trade unwind pressure is easing for now, but watch if this holds.

Fed Chair Announcement Imminent – Trump says he has "two or three left in mind." Polymarket has Warsh at 44%, Rieder at 31%, Waller at 14%. Announcement could come any day. A hawkish pick would shift ra

With momentum negative, we have to look at our portfolio and ask five questions today...

Question 2: Who is the marginal seller if this gets worse?

Prices are not set by long-term investors in moments of stress.

They’re set by whoever has to sell next.

That’s leverage.

That’s risk models.

That’s volatility control, margin calls, and forced deleveraging.

If a stock is owned by players who sell mechanically when volatility rises, fundamentals don’t matter at the onset. The selling has to finish first.

Our next question will focus on hidden assumptions inside our investments.