AJB Capital
AJB Capital
AJB Capital avatar

AJB Capital

Sign up
Stock
Short Term
Indices

Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

434Posts
60Comments
18%Best ROI
joined

Joined on 16th December 2025

•
location

Baltimore, Maryland

•
LinkedInYouTube
AJB Capital
Public Post

A week ago this market was falling apart. Now, with the Iran strikes called off and oil coming down, it's about as strong as we've seen it in a while.


For most of the year, this rally was just a handful of big tech names carrying everything. Now the whole market's moving together. Small caps and the average stock were already leading the way back, and over the last day the big tech names have come along too, so there's really nothing left sitting out. Look under the hood and you've got breakouts just about everywhere and almost nothing breaking down.


Tech is back out front, and right behind it are materials and the cyclical names. Metals especially are having a great run, and a lot of that is the dollar coming down as the market starts to bet the Fed can ease now that the inflation pressure is fading. The only thing lower is energy, and that's exactly what you want to see, just oil coming back down as the war winds down.


The one thing I'd keep in the back of my mind is that the Fed and th

... see more
A week ago this market was falling apart. Now, with the Iran strikes called off and oil coming down, it's about as strong as we've seen it in a while.
AJB Capital
Public Post

The CPI headline everyone's seeing isn't the number that matters


Inflation printed 4.2% this morning. First 4-handle in three years, and it'll lead every story today. Looks ugly on the surface.


Look one layer down, though. Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, came in soft... up just 0.2% on the month, below estimates and cooler than April. Almost all the heat was energy, up nearly 4%, and that's the Iran and oil story running straight through the pump. A supply shock, not the economy overheating.


So the piece the Fed actually watches is cooling. The piece it can't touch is the one making the headline scary.


Here's how the market's voting into the open. Our mega-cap trend reading, which had rolled over negative overnight, flipped back green on that soft core. The next leg down we were bracing for this morning got pulled back from the edge.


But this isn't a relief rally, and that's the tell. Most sectors are red. Tech's the worst again, down over a percent. The only green is energy,

... see more
AJB Capital
Public Post

The entire global rate cycle has flipped from cuts to hikes.


For about 15 years, the reflex everyone learned was simple. When things get shaky, central banks cut. They print, they ease, they backstop the system, and asset prices go up. That's the world we've been trading in since 2008. It's the muscle memory behind every buy-the-dip instinct in the market.


That's not the world anymore. A large majority of the world's central banks are now overshooting their inflation targets, and the Street is pricing hikes, not cuts. Across the board.


Start with the Fed. No cuts are expected this year, and the market is now starting to price in a small chance of hikes by year-end. Trend and trimmed-mean inflation gauges have stalled out around 3% and headline CPI is drifting toward 4%. The June 17 meeting is the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh, and he's a genuine wildcard. He's signaled a more dovish, smaller-balance-sheet philosophy, but he's walking into rising inflation on day one. What he says will

... see more