AJB Capital

Watch Photronics Today (PLAB)

ASML shares up over 4% this morning after orders pretty much smashed estimates. Record Q4 orders came in nearly double what was expected. So the CapEx spend is clearly not having any issues when it comes to ASML.

That's always been our thesis. This is a pure monopoly. If the US wants to spend money, print money, and hand it out to keep this AI race against China competitive, a lot of that capital winds up in ASML's coffers.

Photronics is a supplier to ASML and they trade pretty much in tandem, just with a little bit of a lag. You might get a pullback today on ASML if it turns into a sell the news situation, maybe back to 1500 or so. But after that I wouldn't be shocked if it keeps cruising higher.

And if that's the case, Photronics hasn't caught up yet. Clear as day on the chart. ASML moved, PLAB didn't. So you've got a little arb play here.

This is about to become my new favorite thing. ASML moves, PLAB doesn't, jump in. Take a call a couple weeks out to a mon

This is what we want to see over the next few days if the Fed is providing support to the BOJ on the yen.

If the Japanese have been selling foreign assets because of the situation over there, the Fed stepping in is basically telling them to stop selling. Stop selling bonds, stop selling US insurance companies. Here, we'll give you some money, we'll help you out.

If that's happening right now while everything else is going haywire and everybody's paying attention to the shiny object, this is what AIG will do. Price goes higher, the 8 crosses above the 20. That's the classic setup for a momentum reversal and a nice move higher while everybody else is still confused about what's happening.

This is the stuff we look out for. When we see a chart setting up, we make note of it, add it to the watch list, and keep one eye on it. We need 20 eyes. One on the kid, the other 19 on all these setups we find during the week.

Let's watch each other's backs. Ten of us, that's 20 eyes. Somebody keep an eye