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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.
10 THINGS INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW TODAY
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
1. NVIDIA China Sales Stalled by US Security Review NVIDIA's AI chip sales to China are reportedly blocked by a US security review. Chinese customers are meanwhile not placing H200 chip orders... NQ underperforming this morning.
2. AMD Beats But NQ Still Weak Q4 EPS $1.53 vs $1.32 exp, revenue $10.3B vs $9.67B exp. Q1 guidance $9.8B vs $9.42B exp. Despite the beat, tech remains under pressure.
3. Gold Reclaims $5,000/oz Spot gold continues rebounding, breaking back above the $5K handle and peaking at $5,092/oz. Silver briefly topped $90/oz before pulling back.
4. Government Shutdown Ended Trump signed the $1.2T spending bill overnight. House passed 217-214. Labor Dept says all agencies resume normal operations today — NFP likely released next week.
5. US Shoots Down Iranian Drone US shot down an Iranian surveillance drone approaching USS Abraham Lincoln. Crude spiked to $64.16 (WTI) before retracing to $63. Trump says "more t
10 THINGS INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW TODAY
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
1. Stocks Rebounded From Monday's Selloff SPX +0.54%, DJI +1.05%, NDX +0.73%, RUT +1.02%. ISM Manufacturing returned to expansion for the first time in 12 months — highest reading since 2022.
2. US-India Trade Deal Trump cuts tariffs on India from 25% to 18% after Modi agrees to stop buying Russian oil. India commits to $500B+ in US energy, tech, and agricultural purchases.
3. RBA Hikes Rates for First Time in 2+ Years Cash rate raised 25bps to 3.85% in unanimous decision. Governor Bullock: "The pulse of inflation is too strong."
4. Jobs Report POSTPONED BLS will not release January NFP on Friday due to partial government shutdown. December JOLTS data also delayed.
5. Gold & Silver Rebounding Gold +5.5% to ~$4,921/oz, Silver +9% to ~$86.70 after Friday's historic crash. Mining stocks and precious metal ETFs rallying globally.
6. Palantir Surges 10% on Earnings Beat Q4 revenue $1.41B vs $1.33B expected. CEO Karp: "Best results in
The Contrarian Oil Trade
Everyone's been bullish oil on Iran tensions.
Strikes seemed imminent.
Risk premium was baked in.
The Reality:
RSI topped 70... and MFI over 80...
Both were OVERBOUGHT.
What Happened:
When everyone is bullish on a narrative (Iran strike!), check your indicators.
RSI approaching 70, MFI approaching 80 = overbought.
Small position, larger payoff. Fade the narrative when indicators flash overbought. You don't need to catch the exact top. A small short position with defined risk can pay off big when the narrative unwinds like it did today.
Indicators > Headlines.