AJB Capital

Copper is ripping. Traders are front-running Trump's pending decision on tariffs for refined copper imports. Everybody wants their metal inside the country before a tariff hits. So copper is pouring into the US at the fastest pace in at least 12 years. More than 200,000 tons landed at US ports in July. That's the biggest monthly haul on record going back to 2014. Prices are up near $14,000 a ton, a two-month high.

The way we'd play this isn't a miner. It's Mueller Industries (MLI). Mueller makes copper tube, fittings, and line sets for HVAC, refrigeration, and construction. That puts it levered directly to copper demand.

What separates it from a miner is the balance sheet. Mueller is debt-free and cash-rich. Its sales grew about 19% last quarter. And it just agreed to buy another copper-tube maker. So you get the copper exposure without the baggage the mining names carry.

It also tracks the metal about as tightly as anything out there. Look at Mueller against copper futures and Southern C

The tape looks great this morning. Amazon's blowout has the tech trade roaring back, Korea's market ripped overnight, and all three of our momentum readings are green again. But the thing actually holding this up is shakier than the screen makes it look.

Japan is the reason, and it's worth understanding.

Their finance ministry stepped into the currency market yesterday. The yen had been grinding down toward levels it hasn't touched in 40 years, and they moved to prop it up, buying yen and selling dollars to do it. The dollar had its worst day in about four years off the back of that, down roughly 3%.

That's the part that reaches us. A weaker dollar loosens financial conditions, and that's a real piece of why stocks took off yesterday and why they're still bid this morning. So the rally we're enjoying is, in part, a product of Japan defending its currency two days ago.

The reason we don't lean on it is that the move doesn't fix anything underneath. The yen keeps falling because Japan's inte

The semiconductors are officially in a bear market. The SOXX is down more than 20% from its June high, and it's still bleeding this morning. Micron is off 6.5%, Intel is down 5%, and the whole group is red again.

It's worse overseas. Korea's KOSPI got halted again and is now down about 30% from its June peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both dropped double digits overnight. This is the memory and hardware trade, the exact corner everyone crowded into all year, unwinding hard.

None of this should be a shock if you've been watching with us. This was one of the most stretched moves above the 200-day we've ever seen, beaten only by the March 2000 top. When something runs that far that fast, the trip back down is violent. That's what we're getting.

Here's the part that matters. The broad market isn't breaking with it. Money keeps leaving the chips and landing in healthcare, financials, and the defensives. So this is still a concentrated unwind in the most crowded trade, not a market-wide collapse. Th