Republic Research
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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

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Joined on 16th December 2025

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Republic Research
Aug 20, 2026Public Post
Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to. Look at Moderna. The stock closed up 177% yesterday, a record day, after its cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a large trial. Pull up a five-minute chart and anchor to the candle where it took off yesterday morning. That line is the average price everyone has paid since the move began, weighted by volume. Moderna has come back and touched it several times since, and it bounced every time. Each of those was a clean short-term trade. One line defines right and wrong. If price holds, you get the move. If it breaks, your stop sits right there and it's cheap, because a name that loses that line usually rolls straight over. You're not guessing where to put your risk. The line carries weight because volume built it. Price only gets pushed under a volume-weighted average by size, and not the kind retail can generate. That's institutions leaving, and you find out the momen ... see more
Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to. Look at Moderna. The stock closed up 177% yesterday, a record day, after its cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a large trial. Pull up a five-minute chart and anchor to the candle where it took off yesterday morning. That line is the average price everyone has paid since the move began, weighted by volume. Moderna has come back and touched it several times since, and it bounced every time. Each of those was a clean short-term trade. One line defines right and wrong. If price holds, you get the move. If it breaks, your stop sits right there and it's cheap, because a name that loses that line usually rolls straight over. You're not guessing where to put your risk. The line carries weight because volume built it. Price only gets pushed under a volume-weighted average by size, and not the kind retail can generate. That's institutions leaving, and you find out the moment it happens. You can anchor to any significant moment, not just a stock's breakout. Treasury announced the bigger bond buybacks around 8:30 yesterday morning. That's an institutional line, because that's the minute the money made its decision. Anchor gold futures to 8:30 yesterday. Gold broke under that level this morning, came back to test it, and is rolling under it now. Do the same on the SPY on the three- or five-minute chart, using the same 8:30 anchor. The market pivoted off that line cleanly several times yesterday. We're back under it this morning, with the line at 769.81. Add a regular VWAP alongside the anchored one. A common play is trading from one to the other. On the chart below, the thin blue line to the thick orange one. SPY sits below the anchored line right now. If it crosses the regular VWAP to the upside and gets momentum behind it, you take it there and play for the reversion back up to 769.81. Buy the first in-the-money call instead of reaching out of the money.Finviz added a nice anchored VWAP tool. Click the button on the image, then click the candle you want to anchor to. Look at Moderna. The stock closed up 177% yesterday, a record day, after its cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a large trial. Pull up a five-minute chart and anchor to the candle where it took off yesterday morning. That line is the average price everyone has paid since the move began, weighted by volume. Moderna has come back and touched it several times since, and it bounced every time. Each of those was a clean short-term trade. One line defines right and wrong. If price holds, you get the move. If it breaks, your stop sits right there and it's cheap, because a name that loses that line usually rolls straight over. You're not guessing where to put your risk. The line carries weight because volume built it. Price only gets pushed under a volume-weighted average by size, and not the kind retail can generate. That's institutions leaving, and you find out the moment it happens. You can anchor to any significant moment, not just a stock's breakout. Treasury announced the bigger bond buybacks around 8:30 yesterday morning. That's an institutional line, because that's the minute the money made its decision. Anchor gold futures to 8:30 yesterday. Gold broke under that level this morning, came back to test it, and is rolling under it now. Do the same on the SPY on the three- or five-minute chart, using the same 8:30 anchor. The market pivoted off that line cleanly several times yesterday. We're back under it this morning, with the line at 769.81. Add a regular VWAP alongside the anchored one. A common play is trading from one to the other. On the chart below, the thin blue line to the thick orange one. SPY sits below the anchored line right now. If it crosses the regular VWAP to the upside and gets momentum behind it, you take it there and play for the reversion back up to 769.81. Buy the first in-the-money call instead of reaching out of the money.
Republic Research
Aug 14, 2026Public Post
Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 100%. Smaller drones get 25%. Allies get 15%. The reason given is national security. We buy too many drones and drone parts from overseas, mostly China, for something the military now depends on. The tariff is meant to force that production back home. Whether it works long term is a different conversation. What matters this morning is that every foreign drone in this market just got more expensive, and the domestic makers didn't have to do anything to gain the advantage. Kratos (KTOS) is the one we know best. The stock has been in a slump all year, working off a huge run from last year. Support has held around $50. It's up about 3% this morning, sitting right at its 200-day moving average. Clear that and turn it into support, and the year's damage starts to repair. Above there, $70 is the next base. Red Cat (RCAT) has the same story on the ... see more
Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 100%. Smaller drones get 25%. Allies get 15%. The reason given is national security. We buy too many drones and drone parts from overseas, mostly China, for something the military now depends on. The tariff is meant to force that production back home. Whether it works long term is a different conversation. What matters this morning is that every foreign drone in this market just got more expensive, and the domestic makers didn't have to do anything to gain the advantage. Kratos (KTOS) is the one we know best. The stock has been in a slump all year, working off a huge run from last year. Support has held around $50. It's up about 3% this morning, sitting right at its 200-day moving average. Clear that and turn it into support, and the year's damage starts to repair. Above there, $70 is the next base. Red Cat (RCAT) has the same story on the chart. The 8-day crossed above the 20-day on August 7, and the stock has taken back its 200-day. Buy the stock and set a 20% stop.Trump put tariffs on imported drones. Signed yesterday, effective September 3. Anything over 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging gets hit at 100%. Smaller drones get 25%. Allies get 15%. The reason given is national security. We buy too many drones and drone parts from overseas, mostly China, for something the military now depends on. The tariff is meant to force that production back home. Whether it works long term is a different conversation. What matters this morning is that every foreign drone in this market just got more expensive, and the domestic makers didn't have to do anything to gain the advantage. Kratos (KTOS) is the one we know best. The stock has been in a slump all year, working off a huge run from last year. Support has held around $50. It's up about 3% this morning, sitting right at its 200-day moving average. Clear that and turn it into support, and the year's damage starts to repair. Above there, $70 is the next base. Red Cat (RCAT) has the same story on the chart. The 8-day crossed above the 20-day on August 7, and the stock has taken back its 200-day. Buy the stock and set a 20% stop.
Republic Research
Aug 11, 2026Public Post
We're coming in more cautious than we've been in a while. CPI lands tomorrow, and this market has run hot for a week and a half now. Nothing has actually broken yet. Our momentum numbers are still green. Capital is still coming in. Small caps firmed up overnight, and the FNGD is still bleeding lower. The rally is intact. The problem is oil. The OILU is breaking out again. Brent touched 90 last night as the Hormuz deal stalls and the hostilities pick back up. When oil runs, it leans on everything, and you can already see it in the 10-year, which pushed back over 4.70 this morning. Rising oil means rising costs, and rising costs bring the rate fear right back. That's a bad setup heading into an inflation print. The market's priced for perfection up here, oil is turning into a real problem, and this is usually the point where the first person heads for the exit and everyone else follows. We're not fighting the trend. We stay long what's working. We just keep it light and watch the door ... see more