AJB Capital

Momentum improved overnight, and our cap-weighted readings are back in positive territory this morning. The Russell is still underwater, so small caps haven’t joined in yet, but financials are improving.

Rates and oil both gave us some relief yesterday. The 10-year closed at 5.22%, down from 5.28%, and oil is pulling back again this morning. The AI trade took a hit after a report that OpenAI’s revenue is running about $20 billion below earlier estimates, with Oracle falling more than 5%. Most of that money stayed in stocks. It rotated into energy, staples and banks, and the equal-weight S&P finished higher on a day the S&P fell. Semiconductors are leading the bounce this morning.

It’s Friday with weekly options expiring, so everything is in play, and this market can go either way today.

Delta (DAL) missed estimates and cut its full-year profit outlook this morning on a $6 billion jump in fuel costs. If it pulls back to around $77, into the bottom band or lower, take a shot back up to the

Stocks finished higher Friday after a weak jobs report. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq added 1.2% after touching a record during the session.

Momentum is stronger than where we left it Friday. Cap-weighted readings are positive on all three indexes coming into today. The S&P is at +65.7, the Russell at +15 and the Nasdaq at +9.8. Equal weight is still negative on the S&P at -32 and the Russell at -31.

Tech is the only S&P sector with more breakouts than breakdowns, 29 to 4. Financials have 32 breakdowns and no breakouts. Consumer cyclicals have 21 and real estate has 14. The biggest stocks are carrying the indexes. Most of the market hasn't followed. Futures are flat ahead of the open.

Bonds didn't join the rally. The 10-year fell to 5.18% after the jobs report and closed the day at 5.28%, above Thursday's 5.24%. It's at 5.27% now.

Odds of an October rate hike fell to about 20%, from 28% Friday morning. A December hike is still priced as more likely than

Monday's selling took the S&P down 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. The 10-year is back to 5.24% this morning and the 30-year to 5.57%. The weekly readings are still red. The S&P is at -87 equal weight and -22 cap-weighted, with 46 names breaking out against 270 breaking down. The Russell is at -62 and -24. The Nasdaq is barely positive at +1.8.

The daily pulse turned this morning. On the S&P it's +22 equal weight and +104 cap-weighted, with 153 names breaking out on the day against 73 breaking down. That's a bounce starting. It isn't a signal yet.

What makes this one worth watching is who's buying. The five-day average of insider buying to selling is at its highest in six months, heading into quarter-end. It spiked the same way at the end of March, when the market was at its darkest. Momentum turned about a week later, and the S&P ran 12% in 13 sessions.

The equal-weight S&P (RSP) is the chart to watch. It's holding the 38.2% retracement of its run at $209, with the 200-day and the 50% level st