AJB Capital
AJB Capital
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AJB Capital

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Garrett Baldwin and Scott Dunn explore alternative investment strategies, value and momentum strategies, tail-risk analysis, and behavioral finance. We take a highly quantitative approach to trading and investing and blend it with macroeconomic analysis and deep research. We also highly emphasis risk management practices. Long call/put, spread trading, value reversion, RSI/MFI reversions.

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Joined on 16th December 2025

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AJB Capital
Public Post

Quick follow-up on one we shared about two weeks ago.


TPL, LandBridge (LB), and WaterBridge (WBI).


Since that post, TPL has run nearly $135. LandBridge is up close to 20%. WaterBridge about 6%.


The story hasn't changed. If anything it's getting louder. Upstream consolidation is still underway, the data center buildout in West Texas is accelerating, and these names are right in the middle of it all. They're also catching a tailwind from the geopolitical situation right now, which is real... but that kind of premium can come out of the price just as fast as it went in.


So if you missed this move, don't chase. When the geopolitical heat fades and these pull back under the 8-day, ideally down towards the 20-day... that's your window. Sell a put spread at a price you'd be comfortable paying for the stock. On something like LandBridge, that might mean waiting for a pullback into the mid-60s and targeting a spread around 60. You know your risk tolerance better than we do... just let the price com

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Quick follow-up on one we shared about two weeks ago.Quick follow-up on one we shared about two weeks ago.