“We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.” President Trump posted that on Truth Social this morning. He also wrote that the U.S. holds Iran’s money and the Strait of Hormuz.
He told Vice President Vance to focus on crime and corruption in Democratic cities instead. On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was weighing a face-to-face meeting with a top Iranian security official. The war is in its ninth month, and the fighting has mostly given way to a standoff.
All year, Washington has talked peace when OILU gets overbought and turned hawkish when it’s oversold. When everyone was calling for $200 oil, the bombing paused, and prices collapsed the next day.
In mid-April, the resolution chatter faded, and the strikes resumed right at the bottom. Then the attacks stopped again, and that’s how it went through the summer.
Today fits the pattern. OILU spent the past few weeks falling, and the banks said crude was headed lower. Now it’s trying to turn higher, and insiders keep buying energy names.
OILU’s 8-day moving average sits around $48, and its 20-day is up near $56. I want to see it stay above the first before I trust a run at the second.
