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Republic Research / ARTICLE

Momentum has turned negative. The S&P and Nasdaq downtrends are clear, lower highs and lower lows, and the Russell is fading right along with them. Time to start playing defense. Last night's earnings didn't help. Alphabet beat on revenue with cloud growing 82%, then told everyone capex could reach $205 billion this year, and the stock got sold 4% anyway. Tesla put up record revenue and still missed, with costs up 47% and margins collapsing to 1.4% from 4%. Both reactions say the same thing. The market has stopped rewarding the spending. It wants proof it pays off. Under the surface, the selling is concentrated in the biggest names while the average stock actually improved overnight. Energy is up almost 5% on the week, and utilities, materials, and real estate are pulling in money. Every group with more stocks breaking out than breaking down right now is defensive or rate-sensitive. That's where capital is hiding. Oil is driving this. Brent is pushing toward $100 after the Houthis hit two tankers in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia suspended shipments through that route. That's a second chokepoint on top of Hormuz. The 10-year is around 4.65%, the 30-year has held above 5% for twelve straight sessions, the longest run since 2007, and gas is back over $4 a gallon. Rising energy feeds rising rates, and rising rates hit the companies borrowing billions to build harder than anyone else. The VIX is barely moving through all of this, so we keep leaning on the FNGD as our tell that something isn't right. It's above its 8 and 20-day, and it's been keeping us from getting too bullish for weeks now. The 50-day is the line where this becomes a bigger problem. Not there yet, but we're checking it daily. Intel reports tonight with options pricing a 15% move, so the week isn't done swinging.

Published Jul 23, 2026Updated Jul 23, 20265 min read
Momentum has turned negative. The S&P and Nasdaq downtrends are clear, lower highs and lower lows, and the Russell is fading right along with them. Time to start playing defense. Last night's earnings didn't help. Alphabet beat on revenue with cloud growing 82%, then told everyone capex could reach $205 billion this year, and the stock got sold 4% anyway. Tesla put up record revenue and still missed, with costs up 47% and margins collapsing to 1.4% from 4%. Both reactions say the same thing. The market has stopped rewarding the spending. It wants proof it pays off. Under the surface, the selling is concentrated in the biggest names while the average stock actually improved overnight. Energy is up almost 5% on the week, and utilities, materials, and real estate are pulling in money. Every group with more stocks breaking out than breaking down right now is defensive or rate-sensitive. That's where capital is hiding. Oil is driving this. Brent is pushing toward $100 after the Houthis hit two tankers in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia suspended shipments through that route. That's a second chokepoint on top of Hormuz. The 10-year is around 4.65%, the 30-year has held above 5% for twelve straight sessions, the longest run since 2007, and gas is back over $4 a gallon. Rising energy feeds rising rates, and rising rates hit the companies borrowing billions to build harder than anyone else. The VIX is barely moving through all of this, so we keep leaning on the FNGD as our tell that something isn't right. It's above its 8 and 20-day, and it's been keeping us from getting too bullish for weeks now. The 50-day is the line where this becomes a bigger problem. Not there yet, but we're checking it daily. Intel reports tonight with options pricing a 15% move, so the week isn't done swinging.