TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

704Posts
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183%Best ROI
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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Oct 10, 2025Public Post
NEXOUSD Analysis per Chart Request This coin is at a critical juncture. It must hold the Bollinger Band basis and move above the upper Bollinger Band with force. This move up will prevent the LMACD from crossing bearish, and instead cause it to diverge up and strengthen to the upside. Failure to hold the basis would lead to a bearish crossover of the LMACD. I see this as a riskier chart than many other alts at the moment, but there's still a strong chance this plays out positively.
NEXOUSD Analysis per Chart Request This coin is at a critical juncture. It must hold the Bollinger Band basis and move above the upper Bollinger Band with force. This move up will prevent the LMACD from crossing bearish, and instead cause it to diverge up and strengthen to the upside. Failure to hold the basis would lead to a bearish crossover of the LMACD. I see this as a riskier chart than many other alts at the moment, but there's still a strong chance this plays out positively.
TonySeverinoCMT
Oct 04, 2025Public Post
Bitcoin Bulls Must Follow Through Next Week Bitcoin made a strong recovery back towards all time highs. Things are looking good currently. But next week bulls must follow through. I did want to warn of a few things to consider: It’s October 4. That’s only 4 days into the monthly candle and quarterly candle. It would be somewhat unusual to see such a tiny amount of lower wick and we take off higher at the start of the candle. On the weekly, we didn’t get a buy signal on the Bollinger Bands. There’s also a lack of breakout volume. The Bollinger Bands are starting to expand, signaling that volatility is back. This could lead to a head fake situation where we dump back to the lower band. Note: I am referencing the BTC CME chart. We could still get a buy signal on spot exchanges. If we do get volume next week and break out higher, it should be one of the steepest climbs and a move towards a grand finale for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bulls Must Follow Through Next Week Bitcoin made a strong recovery back towards all time highs. Things are looking good currently. But next week bulls must follow through. I did want to warn of a few things to consider: It’s October 4. That’s only 4 days into the monthly candle and quarterly candle. It would be somewhat unusual to see such a tiny amount of lower wick and we take off higher at the start of the candle. On the weekly, we didn’t get a buy signal on the Bollinger Bands. There’s also a lack of breakout volume. The Bollinger Bands are starting to expand, signaling that volatility is back. This could lead to a head fake situation where we dump back to the lower band. Note: I am referencing the BTC CME chart. We could still get a buy signal on spot exchanges. If we do get volume next week and break out higher, it should be one of the steepest climbs and a move towards a grand finale for Bitcoin.
TonySeverinoCMT
Sep 25, 2025Public Post
WARNING: Bitcoin In Dangerous Position Yesterday, I shared a video about a bearish alternative scenario where Bitcoin could fall up to 50%. I am seeing more and more technical confluence that points to such a situation. The weekly MUST close very very bullish to fix the monthly and more importantly, the quarterly chart. If the weekly closes very bearish, we will instead potentially see a bearish Q4 and Q1 2026, despite me previously expecting the opposite. Right now, BTCUSD is showing the tightest Bollinger Band reading ever on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is called a SQUEEZE setup. When it ends, it releases pent up energy and volatility creating a huge, trending move. As this happens, Bitcoin is at risk of losing a three-year uptrend channel, and there's an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart. Monthly momentum has crossed bearish. Weekly momentum is also pointing more sharply down. The technical setup appears to point towards a move to the 1.618 Fib extension of the ... see more
WARNING: Bitcoin In Dangerous Position Yesterday, I shared a video about a bearish alternative scenario where Bitcoin could fall up to 50%. I am seeing more and more technical confluence that points to such a situation. The weekly MUST close very very bullish to fix the monthly and more importantly, the quarterly chart. If the weekly closes very bearish, we will instead potentially see a bearish Q4 and Q1 2026, despite me previously expecting the opposite. Right now, BTCUSD is showing the tightest Bollinger Band reading ever on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is called a SQUEEZE setup. When it ends, it releases pent up energy and volatility creating a huge, trending move. As this happens, Bitcoin is at risk of losing a three-year uptrend channel, and there's an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart. Monthly momentum has crossed bearish. Weekly momentum is also pointing more sharply down. The technical setup appears to point towards a move to the 1.618 Fib extension of the April swing low to the August swing high. I'm sensing the expanded flat situation could come together and cause everyone to think the cycle has ended. There's added confluence of the 200-week MA right where the 1.618 Fib extension target is.WARNING: Bitcoin In Dangerous Position Yesterday, I shared a video about a bearish alternative scenario where Bitcoin could fall up to 50%. I am seeing more and more technical confluence that points to such a situation. The weekly MUST close very very bullish to fix the monthly and more importantly, the quarterly chart. If the weekly closes very bearish, we will instead potentially see a bearish Q4 and Q1 2026, despite me previously expecting the opposite. Right now, BTCUSD is showing the tightest Bollinger Band reading ever on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is called a SQUEEZE setup. When it ends, it releases pent up energy and volatility creating a huge, trending move. As this happens, Bitcoin is at risk of losing a three-year uptrend channel, and there's an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart. Monthly momentum has crossed bearish. Weekly momentum is also pointing more sharply down. The technical setup appears to point towards a move to the 1.618 Fib extension of the April swing low to the August swing high. I'm sensing the expanded flat situation could come together and cause everyone to think the cycle has ended. There's added confluence of the 200-week MA right where the 1.618 Fib extension target is.WARNING: Bitcoin In Dangerous Position Yesterday, I shared a video about a bearish alternative scenario where Bitcoin could fall up to 50%. I am seeing more and more technical confluence that points to such a situation. The weekly MUST close very very bullish to fix the monthly and more importantly, the quarterly chart. If the weekly closes very bearish, we will instead potentially see a bearish Q4 and Q1 2026, despite me previously expecting the opposite. Right now, BTCUSD is showing the tightest Bollinger Band reading ever on the weekly and monthly timeframes. This is called a SQUEEZE setup. When it ends, it releases pent up energy and volatility creating a huge, trending move. As this happens, Bitcoin is at risk of losing a three-year uptrend channel, and there's an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart. Monthly momentum has crossed bearish. Weekly momentum is also pointing more sharply down. The technical setup appears to point towards a move to the 1.618 Fib extension of the April swing low to the August swing high. I'm sensing the expanded flat situation could come together and cause everyone to think the cycle has ended. There's added confluence of the 200-week MA right where the 1.618 Fib extension target is.