TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Aug 10, 2026Public Post
Bitcoin Possible Hedge Short Setup (I don't understand why the formatting keeps breaking - frustrating!) If Bitcoin doesn't make a larger move up, I see two downside scenarios. One remains still bullish where we test that lower pink box and we just aren't done with our right shoulder. I don't like this idea though. It is taking too long for this intracycle to "top" and will start rolling over with or without the move up. We've done plenty of retesting and the bands are tight I'm still leaning towards long, but because of how the candlesticks look at this local resistance, I need to consider we are failing here and may end up with the purple scenario in the second chart These are the three primary scenarios I see. The purple where we move down now is the nastiest of them. So bad I can't show it all it makes the chart look bad Because of this wave count setup, moving into a wave 3 in the purple scenario, it's a hugely profitable short. Hence the hedge idea Upside here is also very pro ... see more
Bitcoin Possible Hedge Short Setup (I don't understand why the formatting keeps breaking - frustrating!) If Bitcoin doesn't make a larger move up, I see two downside scenarios. One remains still bullish where we test that lower pink box and we just aren't done with our right shoulder. I don't like this idea though. It is taking too long for this intracycle to "top" and will start rolling over with or without the move up. We've done plenty of retesting and the bands are tight I'm still leaning towards long, but because of how the candlesticks look at this local resistance, I need to consider we are failing here and may end up with the purple scenario in the second chart These are the three primary scenarios I see. The purple where we move down now is the nastiest of them. So bad I can't show it all it makes the chart look bad Because of this wave count setup, moving into a wave 3 in the purple scenario, it's a hugely profitable short. Hence the hedge idea Upside here is also very profitable. Whatever side is chosen, if you act fast enough, you can get a good move out of this trend wise I have stopped suggesting stop buys, but because of how tight the bands are, I do think it works this time. IF you aren't long yet, it is risky to long resistance. So what you do is you long, right after resistance is taken out, so that the breakout carries price higher. Not every move makes a retest and instead keeps ripping A stop buy enters you into a trade when prices reaches it from the underside. Different than a limit order. Not every platform offers this Also, do this at your own risk and make sure you understand all of what you are getting into. I cannot give you financial advice because I don't know your situation. I personally will hedge here, I am long from below. And I"ll add to the long with this stop buy method. The third and final chart shows why I am leaning more bullish than bearish overall from just a pattern and momentum perspectiveBitcoin Possible Hedge Short Setup (I don't understand why the formatting keeps breaking - frustrating!) If Bitcoin doesn't make a larger move up, I see two downside scenarios. One remains still bullish where we test that lower pink box and we just aren't done with our right shoulder. I don't like this idea though. It is taking too long for this intracycle to "top" and will start rolling over with or without the move up. We've done plenty of retesting and the bands are tight I'm still leaning towards long, but because of how the candlesticks look at this local resistance, I need to consider we are failing here and may end up with the purple scenario in the second chart These are the three primary scenarios I see. The purple where we move down now is the nastiest of them. So bad I can't show it all it makes the chart look bad Because of this wave count setup, moving into a wave 3 in the purple scenario, it's a hugely profitable short. Hence the hedge idea Upside here is also very profitable. Whatever side is chosen, if you act fast enough, you can get a good move out of this trend wise I have stopped suggesting stop buys, but because of how tight the bands are, I do think it works this time. IF you aren't long yet, it is risky to long resistance. So what you do is you long, right after resistance is taken out, so that the breakout carries price higher. Not every move makes a retest and instead keeps ripping A stop buy enters you into a trade when prices reaches it from the underside. Different than a limit order. Not every platform offers this Also, do this at your own risk and make sure you understand all of what you are getting into. I cannot give you financial advice because I don't know your situation. I personally will hedge here, I am long from below. And I"ll add to the long with this stop buy method. The third and final chart shows why I am leaning more bullish than bearish overall from just a pattern and momentum perspectiveBitcoin Possible Hedge Short Setup (I don't understand why the formatting keeps breaking - frustrating!) If Bitcoin doesn't make a larger move up, I see two downside scenarios. One remains still bullish where we test that lower pink box and we just aren't done with our right shoulder. I don't like this idea though. It is taking too long for this intracycle to "top" and will start rolling over with or without the move up. We've done plenty of retesting and the bands are tight I'm still leaning towards long, but because of how the candlesticks look at this local resistance, I need to consider we are failing here and may end up with the purple scenario in the second chart These are the three primary scenarios I see. The purple where we move down now is the nastiest of them. So bad I can't show it all it makes the chart look bad Because of this wave count setup, moving into a wave 3 in the purple scenario, it's a hugely profitable short. Hence the hedge idea Upside here is also very profitable. Whatever side is chosen, if you act fast enough, you can get a good move out of this trend wise I have stopped suggesting stop buys, but because of how tight the bands are, I do think it works this time. IF you aren't long yet, it is risky to long resistance. So what you do is you long, right after resistance is taken out, so that the breakout carries price higher. Not every move makes a retest and instead keeps ripping A stop buy enters you into a trade when prices reaches it from the underside. Different than a limit order. Not every platform offers this Also, do this at your own risk and make sure you understand all of what you are getting into. I cannot give you financial advice because I don't know your situation. I personally will hedge here, I am long from below. And I"ll add to the long with this stop buy method. The third and final chart shows why I am leaning more bullish than bearish overall from just a pattern and momentum perspective