TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

704Posts
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183%Best ROI
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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Mar 09, 2026Public Post
Quick BTC Update and Quick Lesson: Close Shorts and Different Types of Trades Technical Analysis and Trade Update Although this move up is just a small daily move so far, we have moved above the Bollinger Band basis on the daily, which is a sign we want to close our shorts from above the upper BB. There is now a slightly higher probability that we tap the upper Bollinger Band again first These next few days and week or two will be tricky, I sense The market is heavy, but Bitcoin order books are thin and market makers can shake things up for a while Today's daily candlestick is also a bullish engulfing, so there is likely some more upside now Price held at former range medium despite deviation move above and rejection. This hints at another attempt at a breakout in my experience Ichimoku shows the chikou span (dashed grey line) is passing through the candlesticks and Tenkan-sen. This suggests the chikou span would move to the Kijun-sen next, so around $76K. $76K puts BTC back into th ... see more
Quick BTC Update and Quick Lesson: Close Shorts and Different Types of Trades Technical Analysis and Trade Update Although this move up is just a small daily move so far, we have moved above the Bollinger Band basis on the daily, which is a sign we want to close our shorts from above the upper BB. There is now a slightly higher probability that we tap the upper Bollinger Band again first These next few days and week or two will be tricky, I sense The market is heavy, but Bitcoin order books are thin and market makers can shake things up for a while Today's daily candlestick is also a bullish engulfing, so there is likely some more upside now Price held at former range medium despite deviation move above and rejection. This hints at another attempt at a breakout in my experience Ichimoku shows the chikou span (dashed grey line) is passing through the candlesticks and Tenkan-sen. This suggests the chikou span would move to the Kijun-sen next, so around $76K. $76K puts BTC back into the daily cloud. The top of the cloud is at $79K. Price is currently struggling with Tenkan-sen as resistance. The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, so there's a bullish crossover, but the Kijun-sen needs to move up to confirm the bullish trend. LMACD shows a darkening green tick, highlighting increasing bullish momentum. The LMACD line and signal line are diverging and pushing back towards 0. Above 0 and things get very bullish Quick Lesson Trade Differences And Skill Levels In the future, I am going to try to better define how long of a timeframe trade each call is. I am going to separate scalps, day trades, swing trades, and investments. I will do my best to explain which type of position I am taking and why. If you are relatively new or unskilled, focus on investments, and work your way backwards towards scalping. The faster the timeframe, the more intense it is on you mentally and emotionally You want to do the safest things first, get decent at each, then progress. You do not want to try scalping or day trading if you are just starting – you will get chopped up and lose tons of money. Everyone does. I did at first These latest shorts were very short, day trades. I need to better call that out. Remember. Ask questions too if you aren't sure. I'd rather take the time to answer you than see you make a mistake and lose money. Your access to me and your Slice subscription is part of your risk management - use it No new trade setups for now. I will be looking.Quick BTC Update and Quick Lesson: Close Shorts and Different Types of Trades Technical Analysis and Trade Update Although this move up is just a small daily move so far, we have moved above the Bollinger Band basis on the daily, which is a sign we want to close our shorts from above the upper BB. There is now a slightly higher probability that we tap the upper Bollinger Band again first These next few days and week or two will be tricky, I sense The market is heavy, but Bitcoin order books are thin and market makers can shake things up for a while Today's daily candlestick is also a bullish engulfing, so there is likely some more upside now Price held at former range medium despite deviation move above and rejection. This hints at another attempt at a breakout in my experience Ichimoku shows the chikou span (dashed grey line) is passing through the candlesticks and Tenkan-sen. This suggests the chikou span would move to the Kijun-sen next, so around $76K. $76K puts BTC back into the daily cloud. The top of the cloud is at $79K. Price is currently struggling with Tenkan-sen as resistance. The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, so there's a bullish crossover, but the Kijun-sen needs to move up to confirm the bullish trend. LMACD shows a darkening green tick, highlighting increasing bullish momentum. The LMACD line and signal line are diverging and pushing back towards 0. Above 0 and things get very bullish Quick Lesson Trade Differences And Skill Levels In the future, I am going to try to better define how long of a timeframe trade each call is. I am going to separate scalps, day trades, swing trades, and investments. I will do my best to explain which type of position I am taking and why. If you are relatively new or unskilled, focus on investments, and work your way backwards towards scalping. The faster the timeframe, the more intense it is on you mentally and emotionally You want to do the safest things first, get decent at each, then progress. You do not want to try scalping or day trading if you are just starting – you will get chopped up and lose tons of money. Everyone does. I did at first These latest shorts were very short, day trades. I need to better call that out. Remember. Ask questions too if you aren't sure. I'd rather take the time to answer you than see you make a mistake and lose money. Your access to me and your Slice subscription is part of your risk management - use it No new trade setups for now. I will be looking.Quick BTC Update and Quick Lesson: Close Shorts and Different Types of Trades Technical Analysis and Trade Update Although this move up is just a small daily move so far, we have moved above the Bollinger Band basis on the daily, which is a sign we want to close our shorts from above the upper BB. There is now a slightly higher probability that we tap the upper Bollinger Band again first These next few days and week or two will be tricky, I sense The market is heavy, but Bitcoin order books are thin and market makers can shake things up for a while Today's daily candlestick is also a bullish engulfing, so there is likely some more upside now Price held at former range medium despite deviation move above and rejection. This hints at another attempt at a breakout in my experience Ichimoku shows the chikou span (dashed grey line) is passing through the candlesticks and Tenkan-sen. This suggests the chikou span would move to the Kijun-sen next, so around $76K. $76K puts BTC back into the daily cloud. The top of the cloud is at $79K. Price is currently struggling with Tenkan-sen as resistance. The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, so there's a bullish crossover, but the Kijun-sen needs to move up to confirm the bullish trend. LMACD shows a darkening green tick, highlighting increasing bullish momentum. The LMACD line and signal line are diverging and pushing back towards 0. Above 0 and things get very bullish Quick Lesson Trade Differences And Skill Levels In the future, I am going to try to better define how long of a timeframe trade each call is. I am going to separate scalps, day trades, swing trades, and investments. I will do my best to explain which type of position I am taking and why. If you are relatively new or unskilled, focus on investments, and work your way backwards towards scalping. The faster the timeframe, the more intense it is on you mentally and emotionally You want to do the safest things first, get decent at each, then progress. You do not want to try scalping or day trading if you are just starting – you will get chopped up and lose tons of money. Everyone does. I did at first These latest shorts were very short, day trades. I need to better call that out. Remember. Ask questions too if you aren't sure. I'd rather take the time to answer you than see you make a mistake and lose money. Your access to me and your Slice subscription is part of your risk management - use it No new trade setups for now. I will be looking.
TonySeverinoCMT
Mar 04, 2026Public Post
S&P 500: I Think The Stock Market Has Topped Seriously. This could be a bad moment for the world that could possibly kick off a recession. If the S&P 500 drops, it could take down Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver with it When there's a huge, fear-driven move, almost all markets sell off into cash, creating what's called a correlation one moment. It's because all assets instantly correlate to +1, because they're all dumping into dollars at once So just because Bitcoin is looking bullish, this could be a catalyst that causes more selling in Bitcoin. Price is struggling at the resistance boundary of a rising wedge shaped pattern. This could be an ending diagonal per Elliott Wave Technicals appear to support this, following a perfected TD8 and TD9 sell setup. The RSI closing back below 70 will trigger selling. The LMACD is crossed bearish with a divergence. The Fisher Transform is showing the same behavior. This is NOT good. The one caveat. It's so early in the month these signals could be gon ... see more
S&P 500: I Think The Stock Market Has Topped Seriously. This could be a bad moment for the world that could possibly kick off a recession. If the S&P 500 drops, it could take down Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver with it When there's a huge, fear-driven move, almost all markets sell off into cash, creating what's called a correlation one moment. It's because all assets instantly correlate to +1, because they're all dumping into dollars at once So just because Bitcoin is looking bullish, this could be a catalyst that causes more selling in Bitcoin. Price is struggling at the resistance boundary of a rising wedge shaped pattern. This could be an ending diagonal per Elliott Wave Technicals appear to support this, following a perfected TD8 and TD9 sell setup. The RSI closing back below 70 will trigger selling. The LMACD is crossed bearish with a divergence. The Fisher Transform is showing the same behavior. This is NOT good. The one caveat. It's so early in the month these signals could be gone by the end of the month. But I really tend to not think so. Momentum is non-existence, and starting to topple over. The VIX spiked above 20. Something big is coming and I don't think the move is up. What this does to Bitcoin or alts is anyone's guess. It is a little unusual, because Bitcoin's chart looks decent, and so do some altcoins like HYPE. This is a major watch closely moment I'll collect my thoughts more, but for now I shorted with a stop loss over 7000S&P 500: I Think The Stock Market Has Topped Seriously. This could be a bad moment for the world that could possibly kick off a recession. If the S&P 500 drops, it could take down Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver with it When there's a huge, fear-driven move, almost all markets sell off into cash, creating what's called a correlation one moment. It's because all assets instantly correlate to +1, because they're all dumping into dollars at once So just because Bitcoin is looking bullish, this could be a catalyst that causes more selling in Bitcoin. Price is struggling at the resistance boundary of a rising wedge shaped pattern. This could be an ending diagonal per Elliott Wave Technicals appear to support this, following a perfected TD8 and TD9 sell setup. The RSI closing back below 70 will trigger selling. The LMACD is crossed bearish with a divergence. The Fisher Transform is showing the same behavior. This is NOT good. The one caveat. It's so early in the month these signals could be gone by the end of the month. But I really tend to not think so. Momentum is non-existence, and starting to topple over. The VIX spiked above 20. Something big is coming and I don't think the move is up. What this does to Bitcoin or alts is anyone's guess. It is a little unusual, because Bitcoin's chart looks decent, and so do some altcoins like HYPE. This is a major watch closely moment I'll collect my thoughts more, but for now I shorted with a stop loss over 7000