TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Aug 20, 2025Public Post
Confusing Bitcoin Corrective Phase Elliott Wave Alt Counts All Elliott Wave analysts should have at least one alternative count that is opposite of their current count bias. For example, if you have a clear bullish impulse and you're expecting bullish continuation based on that, you should also have a potential bearish take and count for consideration. I lean bullish because of how altcoins look, not so much Bitcoin. But a bearish Bitcoin would bring down the entire market. Given the last post I did on momentum, a more substantial bearish correction is very possible, even if it isn't quite the cycle peak. The important point of this alternative wave count is wave degree. This correction might look and feel a lot like the 2022 correction, because it could be another Expanded Flat pattern. However, this would be of a smaller wave degree, so it won't be as long or as violent. It also would point to yet one more bullish wave up, taking Bitcoin well above $150K and possibly even higher. ... see more
Confusing Bitcoin Corrective Phase Elliott Wave Alt Counts All Elliott Wave analysts should have at least one alternative count that is opposite of their current count bias. For example, if you have a clear bullish impulse and you're expecting bullish continuation based on that, you should also have a potential bearish take and count for consideration. I lean bullish because of how altcoins look, not so much Bitcoin. But a bearish Bitcoin would bring down the entire market. Given the last post I did on momentum, a more substantial bearish correction is very possible, even if it isn't quite the cycle peak. The important point of this alternative wave count is wave degree. This correction might look and feel a lot like the 2022 correction, because it could be another Expanded Flat pattern. However, this would be of a smaller wave degree, so it won't be as long or as violent. It also would point to yet one more bullish wave up, taking Bitcoin well above $150K and possibly even higher. Note that the circled numbers are primary wave degree. These are the largest you see on this chart. Largest in size and in duration. Also note that primary wave 2 was shorter than wave 4. Wave 4s are commonly much longer than a wave 2. They usually have a Fibonacci time relationship such as 1.618 or 2. The numbered waves in parentheses are of intermediate degree. What could be happening is wave C of an Expanded Flat during an intermediate wave (4). The low volume and non confirmation of indicators on the way up is somewhat consistent with what we saw in late 2021. That made the C-wave down that much worse. This intermediate wave (4) should be larger and longer in duration than the minor degree wave 4 we saw in 2024. The intermediate wave (4) could take us back into minor wave 4's price territory. This would take BTC to the $50Ks. I struggle to see this scenario given the fundamentals around Bitcoin and crypto, but some type of MSTR-related event could do the trick and fast. I want to reiterate that I lean bullish right now due to altcoins. They shouldn't look this good if BTC is about to fall off a cliff. But admittedly, Bitcoin doesn't looks as positive as it did since the April rebound. If for some reason we do get more of a correction, I'd be using this as a guide. Ultimately, because this is a larger wave (4) correction, that would still leave the final wave 5. So this wouldn't be the cyclical top, but would get a lot of people to think so.