TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Apr 09, 2026Public Post
Bitcoin BTCUSD Daily Bollinger Band/Ascending Triangle Breakout If the daily closes strong above here, we can assume this is an actual breakout. Next resistance is $75,900 if we get above here It should move fast for it to be a confirmed breakout. However, there's still a strong risk:reward setup for a short here. I am not going to give a direction and let you decide Shorting/selling at resistance is always a good move. Lots of downside and risk/ Market is clearly resilient, volatile, and if this shows just a little more strength should recover a lot of lost ground and move to $80Ks fast. However, if we are still in a bear market, and I am very confident we are, no matter what this leads to new lows. The upside may also be fairly capped in a bear market Either way, a break above resistance is notable especially if we get strength and volume. Rejection is also significant. It will be 9 different daily candles rejected from this resistance level. Repeated rejections will have absorbed ... see more
Bitcoin BTCUSD Daily Bollinger Band/Ascending Triangle Breakout If the daily closes strong above here, we can assume this is an actual breakout. Next resistance is $75,900 if we get above here It should move fast for it to be a confirmed breakout. However, there's still a strong risk:reward setup for a short here. I am not going to give a direction and let you decide Shorting/selling at resistance is always a good move. Lots of downside and risk/ Market is clearly resilient, volatile, and if this shows just a little more strength should recover a lot of lost ground and move to $80Ks fast. However, if we are still in a bear market, and I am very confident we are, no matter what this leads to new lows. The upside may also be fairly capped in a bear market Either way, a break above resistance is notable especially if we get strength and volume. Rejection is also significant. It will be 9 different daily candles rejected from this resistance level. Repeated rejections will have absorbed buyers if it can't breakout into a minor uptrend, resulting in less buyers willing to step in if we move down This remains ultra pivotal That is why the trade is so difficult This is a weird one for me. Cycles do still point to recovery for a couple months. Technicals point to more downside. The two forces could result in sideways instead In some older cycle analysis, I highlight how this bear market has similar cycles conditions as 2018. 2018 went sideways the entire year, only to break down at the very end. Accumulation was faster than other bear markets, and it bounced right back up into the 2019 rally. This was too fast, so it retested lows around COVID This bear market is much later in longer-term BTC cycles, so this could have more downside weight than expected. I am going to do an educational video or post tonight on Hurst Cycle Theory, so everyone can understand better the different principles and how cycles combine.