TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
Apr 23, 2026Public Post
Bitcoin Monthly Morning Star Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Beware As you know, I don't believe the bottom is in for the bear market. But bullish signals are building. The Morning Star on the monthly is VERY significant especially with it forming at a former resistance possibly turned support The problem here is that Bitcoin found resistance at the April 2025 low currently, something that didn't exist in 2022 In 2022, the Morning Star was part of a range deviation and reclaim. IMO, it was very obvious This bottom is less obvious but that might mean anything However, what does mean something is that these patterns PERFORM best when they arrive at the bottom of a downtrend, or during a bull market to continue an uptrend. The second chart shows this in the teal boxes There was also a Morning Star on the monthly right before the COVID collapse If we are potentially looking at another global economic event, this would make sense I've long been expecting an X wave as part of a dou ... see more
Bitcoin Monthly Morning Star Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Beware As you know, I don't believe the bottom is in for the bear market. But bullish signals are building. The Morning Star on the monthly is VERY significant especially with it forming at a former resistance possibly turned support The problem here is that Bitcoin found resistance at the April 2025 low currently, something that didn't exist in 2022 In 2022, the Morning Star was part of a range deviation and reclaim. IMO, it was very obvious This bottom is less obvious but that might mean anything However, what does mean something is that these patterns PERFORM best when they arrive at the bottom of a downtrend, or during a bull market to continue an uptrend. The second chart shows this in the teal boxes There was also a Morning Star on the monthly right before the COVID collapse If we are potentially looking at another global economic event, this would make sense I've long been expecting an X wave as part of a double zig zag for this correction The high before the COVID low was an X wave also X waves are deceiving. They show bullish signals, but ultimately fail to confirm This is what we need to watch for. It is very dangerous. It tricks the market into thinking it is going up,. then sweeps the low fast I see this as a high probability scenario, and much more probable than a bottom being in Update: Added one more chart with the Fisher Transform. It shows that we haven't reached cyclical extremes just yet. Part of how I knew the 2022 low was in was because after the Morning Star, the Fisher Transform flipped up at precise cyclical timing We are too early time-wise, price hasn't reached extremes yet, but we have the Morning Star. IMO, there's a high probability if is a failed signal in the end and part of the bull trap that is being setBitcoin Monthly Morning Star Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Beware As you know, I don't believe the bottom is in for the bear market. But bullish signals are building. The Morning Star on the monthly is VERY significant especially with it forming at a former resistance possibly turned support The problem here is that Bitcoin found resistance at the April 2025 low currently, something that didn't exist in 2022 In 2022, the Morning Star was part of a range deviation and reclaim. IMO, it was very obvious This bottom is less obvious but that might mean anything However, what does mean something is that these patterns PERFORM best when they arrive at the bottom of a downtrend, or during a bull market to continue an uptrend. The second chart shows this in the teal boxes There was also a Morning Star on the monthly right before the COVID collapse If we are potentially looking at another global economic event, this would make sense I've long been expecting an X wave as part of a double zig zag for this correction The high before the COVID low was an X wave also X waves are deceiving. They show bullish signals, but ultimately fail to confirm This is what we need to watch for. It is very dangerous. It tricks the market into thinking it is going up,. then sweeps the low fast I see this as a high probability scenario, and much more probable than a bottom being in Update: Added one more chart with the Fisher Transform. It shows that we haven't reached cyclical extremes just yet. Part of how I knew the 2022 low was in was because after the Morning Star, the Fisher Transform flipped up at precise cyclical timing We are too early time-wise, price hasn't reached extremes yet, but we have the Morning Star. IMO, there's a high probability if is a failed signal in the end and part of the bull trap that is being setBitcoin Monthly Morning Star Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Beware As you know, I don't believe the bottom is in for the bear market. But bullish signals are building. The Morning Star on the monthly is VERY significant especially with it forming at a former resistance possibly turned support The problem here is that Bitcoin found resistance at the April 2025 low currently, something that didn't exist in 2022 In 2022, the Morning Star was part of a range deviation and reclaim. IMO, it was very obvious This bottom is less obvious but that might mean anything However, what does mean something is that these patterns PERFORM best when they arrive at the bottom of a downtrend, or during a bull market to continue an uptrend. The second chart shows this in the teal boxes There was also a Morning Star on the monthly right before the COVID collapse If we are potentially looking at another global economic event, this would make sense I've long been expecting an X wave as part of a double zig zag for this correction The high before the COVID low was an X wave also X waves are deceiving. They show bullish signals, but ultimately fail to confirm This is what we need to watch for. It is very dangerous. It tricks the market into thinking it is going up,. then sweeps the low fast I see this as a high probability scenario, and much more probable than a bottom being in Update: Added one more chart with the Fisher Transform. It shows that we haven't reached cyclical extremes just yet. Part of how I knew the 2022 low was in was because after the Morning Star, the Fisher Transform flipped up at precise cyclical timing We are too early time-wise, price hasn't reached extremes yet, but we have the Morning Star. IMO, there's a high probability if is a failed signal in the end and part of the bull trap that is being set