TonySeverinoCMT
TonySeverinoCMT
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TonySeverinoCMT

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Chartered Market Technician. Cycles, crowds, psychology. I don’t predict — I observe structure. Less noise. More signal.

685Posts
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183%Best ROI
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Joined on 15th November 2024

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TonySeverinoCMT
2 weeks agoPublic Post
Another Perspective On This Bitcoin Bearish Retest (If It Is One) Because I keep sensing we are looking at some sort of macro correction coming that brings down Bitcoin and the best example of that is COVID, I went back to some of my old COVD charts to see how I approached things back then. Here I have included some comparisons of the bearish retest. I have also shown of a weekly RSI downtrend line interesting lace for this downtrend line to be. It very well could be broken I have to admit, the current price action cluster is looking rather bullish and impulsive. Again, hard to tell at this very moment. the second chart is just using that same bear test of trend line to justify part of my COVID analysis the last chart is the same as the first one, just a daily look to show you that its kind of mixed. an impulse def happened. but it isn't clear if we are going to get a few in a row, or outright fail the daily RSI chart looks like we will sort of have more of a rolling top, meaning we ... see more
Another Perspective On This Bitcoin Bearish Retest (If It Is One) Because I keep sensing we are looking at some sort of macro correction coming that brings down Bitcoin and the best example of that is COVID, I went back to some of my old COVD charts to see how I approached things back then. Here I have included some comparisons of the bearish retest. I have also shown of a weekly RSI downtrend line interesting lace for this downtrend line to be. It very well could be broken I have to admit, the current price action cluster is looking rather bullish and impulsive. Again, hard to tell at this very moment. the second chart is just using that same bear test of trend line to justify part of my COVID analysis the last chart is the same as the first one, just a daily look to show you that its kind of mixed. an impulse def happened. but it isn't clear if we are going to get a few in a row, or outright fail the daily RSI chart looks like we will sort of have more of a rolling top, meaning we will go higher, but have started more of a topping process. Some rallies topped out completely. Some kept having such impulsive spikes Right now, I actually believe the retest is the most dominant signal I sort of have a rolling order of things that I consider. Cycles > Psychology > Waves > candlesticks > Bollinger Bands > S/R > patterns > indicatorsAnother Perspective On This Bitcoin Bearish Retest (If It Is One) Because I keep sensing we are looking at some sort of macro correction coming that brings down Bitcoin and the best example of that is COVID, I went back to some of my old COVD charts to see how I approached things back then. Here I have included some comparisons of the bearish retest. I have also shown of a weekly RSI downtrend line interesting lace for this downtrend line to be. It very well could be broken I have to admit, the current price action cluster is looking rather bullish and impulsive. Again, hard to tell at this very moment. the second chart is just using that same bear test of trend line to justify part of my COVID analysis the last chart is the same as the first one, just a daily look to show you that its kind of mixed. an impulse def happened. but it isn't clear if we are going to get a few in a row, or outright fail the daily RSI chart looks like we will sort of have more of a rolling top, meaning we will go higher, but have started more of a topping process. Some rallies topped out completely. Some kept having such impulsive spikes Right now, I actually believe the retest is the most dominant signal I sort of have a rolling order of things that I consider. Cycles > Psychology > Waves > candlesticks > Bollinger Bands > S/R > patterns > indicatorsAnother Perspective On This Bitcoin Bearish Retest (If It Is One) Because I keep sensing we are looking at some sort of macro correction coming that brings down Bitcoin and the best example of that is COVID, I went back to some of my old COVD charts to see how I approached things back then. Here I have included some comparisons of the bearish retest. I have also shown of a weekly RSI downtrend line interesting lace for this downtrend line to be. It very well could be broken I have to admit, the current price action cluster is looking rather bullish and impulsive. Again, hard to tell at this very moment. the second chart is just using that same bear test of trend line to justify part of my COVID analysis the last chart is the same as the first one, just a daily look to show you that its kind of mixed. an impulse def happened. but it isn't clear if we are going to get a few in a row, or outright fail the daily RSI chart looks like we will sort of have more of a rolling top, meaning we will go higher, but have started more of a topping process. Some rallies topped out completely. Some kept having such impulsive spikes Right now, I actually believe the retest is the most dominant signal I sort of have a rolling order of things that I consider. Cycles > Psychology > Waves > candlesticks > Bollinger Bands > S/R > patterns > indicators
TonySeverinoCMT
2 weeks agoPublic Post
Heads Up: I Have Decided To Close All Longs UPDATE: sorry the formatting breaks sometimes. I am going to talk to Slice today about it. I don't like the look it is sloppy. ADDED: Monthly candle only has less than a week to close. monthly candle is a monster and I think it retraces a lot more, so pullback makes sense, even if we are to still eventually crank higher and I am wrong about closing longs. I really just don't like a few things I am seeing in the chart. The IBIT chart is really haunting to me. It is a technical NIGHTMARE Then I saw the CME BTC Futures chart with Bitcoin hitting that trend line Then there is similar ETH chart The sentiment is disgusting out there. Everyone is already so certain the bottom is in Macro is looking kind of spooked This is why even though you may have a plan, you have to be ready to pivot. Other subtle signs to me include, where was the big altcoin explosion? yeah XRP and a few popped 20% This type of bottom energy should have sent alts rocketing. ... see more
Heads Up: I Have Decided To Close All Longs UPDATE: sorry the formatting breaks sometimes. I am going to talk to Slice today about it. I don't like the look it is sloppy. ADDED: Monthly candle only has less than a week to close. monthly candle is a monster and I think it retraces a lot more, so pullback makes sense, even if we are to still eventually crank higher and I am wrong about closing longs. I really just don't like a few things I am seeing in the chart. The IBIT chart is really haunting to me. It is a technical NIGHTMARE Then I saw the CME BTC Futures chart with Bitcoin hitting that trend line Then there is similar ETH chart The sentiment is disgusting out there. Everyone is already so certain the bottom is in Macro is looking kind of spooked This is why even though you may have a plan, you have to be ready to pivot. Other subtle signs to me include, where was the big altcoin explosion? yeah XRP and a few popped 20% This type of bottom energy should have sent alts rocketing. In January 2023 I bought alts at the bottom and did 135% in like 3 weeks Of course, this could be a pause and that is still coming. Reclaiming a major trend line means it would be a deviation and that is usually a sign it was a false breakdown We would have time to see that happen and act. Even if we missed some gains that's okay. The risk aspect of this is far worse than missing gains. The problem is the human brain sees more urgency in missing gains. If BTC is rejected here, a 50% drop is possible. For altcoins, that's up to another 80-90% drawdown in many cases TOTAL crypto market cap chart added Hard to look at these three together and not feel a little uneasy Especially with the sentiment. check out the comments in this X post: https://x.com/TonySeverinoCMT/status/2091747596129755600 the hate I am getting after just publicly nailing one of the hardest moves ever so accurately is wild every low IQ moron out there and only up bull-shit-fluencer on X is saying the bottom is in the problem is some analysts have flipped too. It's a mistake I think. I might live stream today or jut publish some videos. I put together a ton of charts to better explain why analysts are starting to get bullish and say the bottom is in, and why I still don't think it is I also have charts to show off just how dangerous this looksHeads Up: I Have Decided To Close All Longs UPDATE: sorry the formatting breaks sometimes. I am going to talk to Slice today about it. I don't like the look it is sloppy. ADDED: Monthly candle only has less than a week to close. monthly candle is a monster and I think it retraces a lot more, so pullback makes sense, even if we are to still eventually crank higher and I am wrong about closing longs. I really just don't like a few things I am seeing in the chart. The IBIT chart is really haunting to me. It is a technical NIGHTMARE Then I saw the CME BTC Futures chart with Bitcoin hitting that trend line Then there is similar ETH chart The sentiment is disgusting out there. Everyone is already so certain the bottom is in Macro is looking kind of spooked This is why even though you may have a plan, you have to be ready to pivot. Other subtle signs to me include, where was the big altcoin explosion? yeah XRP and a few popped 20% This type of bottom energy should have sent alts rocketing. In January 2023 I bought alts at the bottom and did 135% in like 3 weeks Of course, this could be a pause and that is still coming. Reclaiming a major trend line means it would be a deviation and that is usually a sign it was a false breakdown We would have time to see that happen and act. Even if we missed some gains that's okay. The risk aspect of this is far worse than missing gains. The problem is the human brain sees more urgency in missing gains. If BTC is rejected here, a 50% drop is possible. For altcoins, that's up to another 80-90% drawdown in many cases TOTAL crypto market cap chart added Hard to look at these three together and not feel a little uneasy Especially with the sentiment. check out the comments in this X post: https://x.com/TonySeverinoCMT/status/2091747596129755600 the hate I am getting after just publicly nailing one of the hardest moves ever so accurately is wild every low IQ moron out there and only up bull-shit-fluencer on X is saying the bottom is in the problem is some analysts have flipped too. It's a mistake I think. I might live stream today or jut publish some videos. I put together a ton of charts to better explain why analysts are starting to get bullish and say the bottom is in, and why I still don't think it is I also have charts to show off just how dangerous this looksHeads Up: I Have Decided To Close All Longs UPDATE: sorry the formatting breaks sometimes. I am going to talk to Slice today about it. I don't like the look it is sloppy. ADDED: Monthly candle only has less than a week to close. monthly candle is a monster and I think it retraces a lot more, so pullback makes sense, even if we are to still eventually crank higher and I am wrong about closing longs. I really just don't like a few things I am seeing in the chart. The IBIT chart is really haunting to me. It is a technical NIGHTMARE Then I saw the CME BTC Futures chart with Bitcoin hitting that trend line Then there is similar ETH chart The sentiment is disgusting out there. Everyone is already so certain the bottom is in Macro is looking kind of spooked This is why even though you may have a plan, you have to be ready to pivot. Other subtle signs to me include, where was the big altcoin explosion? yeah XRP and a few popped 20% This type of bottom energy should have sent alts rocketing. In January 2023 I bought alts at the bottom and did 135% in like 3 weeks Of course, this could be a pause and that is still coming. Reclaiming a major trend line means it would be a deviation and that is usually a sign it was a false breakdown We would have time to see that happen and act. Even if we missed some gains that's okay. The risk aspect of this is far worse than missing gains. The problem is the human brain sees more urgency in missing gains. If BTC is rejected here, a 50% drop is possible. For altcoins, that's up to another 80-90% drawdown in many cases TOTAL crypto market cap chart added Hard to look at these three together and not feel a little uneasy Especially with the sentiment. check out the comments in this X post: https://x.com/TonySeverinoCMT/status/2091747596129755600 the hate I am getting after just publicly nailing one of the hardest moves ever so accurately is wild every low IQ moron out there and only up bull-shit-fluencer on X is saying the bottom is in the problem is some analysts have flipped too. It's a mistake I think. I might live stream today or jut publish some videos. I put together a ton of charts to better explain why analysts are starting to get bullish and say the bottom is in, and why I still don't think it is I also have charts to show off just how dangerous this looks