Big up day in Softbank on the back of the OpenAI IPO announcement. If the valuation of OpenAI is much higher that where Softbank has invested lately, then this is bullish. On the other hand, does the IPO, and that of xAI show that debt markets are closed off to LLM makers? If Oracle starts to perform better, or Softbank hits new ATH, then I cover.
russellclark
Hedge fund manager - specialising in macro trends and short selling
291Posts
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13%Best ROI
Joined on 18th December 2025
Decided to grasp the nettle... the Softbank financing looks fragile, so going for the weakest trading member - Oracle. I would add to portfolio - but currently offline. Will do when I can.
The SVF where most of the value of Softbank lies these days has a concentrated profile. In SVF2 - Paypay is the biggest position, mainly due to its recent successful IPO. Much of the rest of the portfolio is loss making. The big uplift is from still private companies. Coupang, the biggest public holding in SVF1 has been crushed in last month or so... Or in essence, most of the value of Softbank is now in non-public companies.
