russellclark
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russellclark
Hedge fund manager - specialising in macro trends and short selling
291Posts
119Comments
13%Best ROI
Joined on 18th December 2025
ARM is interesting. It is turning itself into an AI play - and its new CPU designs are supported by all the hyperscalers. But break ARM, you break Softbank, and you break OPEN AI. Alternatively, if OPEN AI and other AI agents start raising prices to generate cash, does demand drop? Is demand only strong because Chat GPT offers an internet search option uncluttered with ads?
Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?
The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.
