russellclark

Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?

The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.

So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag....