russellclark

It did look like debt markets were going to call time on the AI boom - we were seeing stress in Softbank and Oracle CDS. But the IPO market has come to the rescue. OpenAI and xAI will raise money and keep the part going. The good news, is this is helping the wafer trade. Sumco up another 20% today and 60% for the month.

Big up day in Softbank on the back of the OpenAI IPO announcement. If the valuation of OpenAI is much higher that where Softbank has invested lately, then this is bullish. On the other hand, does the IPO, and that of xAI show that debt markets are closed off to LLM makers? If Oracle starts to perform better, or Softbank hits new ATH, then I cover.

Decided to grasp the nettle... the Softbank financing looks fragile, so going for the weakest trading member - Oracle. I would add to portfolio - but currently offline. Will do when I can.