russellclark

Macro

Commodity

Forex

Hedge fund manager - specialising in macro trends and short selling

266Posts

113Comments

13%Best ROI

Joined on 18th December 2025

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

May 11, 2026Public Post

Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?

Softbank also has good form as a harbinger of market changes - LEADING the US in 1999, 2006, and 2021. Which leads back to an earlier post.... are equities right on Softbank, or are bond markets?

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

May 11, 2026Public Post

The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.

The other tricky part is that the market might just be signalling that OpenAI is losing out to Anthropic - which is backed by Amazon and Google. Amazon and Google, have both surged in recent weeks. Amazon is particularly noteworthy, as the market initially greeted is capex splurge as negative.

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

russellclark

May 11, 2026Private Post

May 11, 2026Public Post

So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag. ... see more

So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag....

So, we are now in AI war... everyone is battling each other, and just like Netflix and Disney bid up the price of content - we are now seeing the price of data centres etc also being bid up. This makes sense to me - the question is how much Capex is needed to build a moat? So Microsoft it close to all in in my view. Capex matches cashflow in recent quarters, and the share price is starting to lag....