russellclark

For newbies - if you click on portfolio - you can see current ideas I have on. Screenshot attached.

Sumco presented results yesterday. Three slides explain both its problems and opportunity. First of all pricing for 300mm wafers used in AI has increased over 200mm dramatically. Secondly, demand from AI for 300mm is forecast to increase dramtically. And thirdly, weak 200mm pricing has led to operating losses. With cyclical business buying as they inflect profitable tends to work best.

Should I add to the wafer trade? Its a good question. Having looked at the wafer stocks, and read various analyst reports, there is no good third party metric to look at to signal now is the time to buy. We are only left with stocks. Today, SUMCO broke to new cycle highs, while WAF GY and GlobalWafers are also looking perky. From an investing point of view, its now when silicon wafer prices rise thats important - it is when the market begins to price in a future rise that is important. And that may be happening. The big tell is if SUMCO and WAF GY can trade up on a down day in the market.