JustDario
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JustDario
Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.
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Joined on 1st June 2026
Hong Kong
The crude oil price is being so suppressed that, after crack spreads (CRAK ETF), now even oil companies' stock performances have been detaching from it
Dear All, considering the broader market has been "slow" overall, being mid-August and that I will still be in the middle of China for another week with VPN limitations, I believe it will be best for me to work and deliver the Second tutorial on Options rather than scheduling a Live Stream.
Will resume Live Stream on Monday, the 24th of August
Please note I will be in Europe from the 26th of August till the 8th of September afterwards and will do my best to propose time slots that can allow as many of you as possible to join the Live Streams.
The 3-2-1 Crack spread is the best barometer to understand whether a move in crude oil prices is genuine or fake - based on that, the move in the past 48 hours is pretty fake
Not surprisingly, diesel prices remain very elevated,
Besides a large trader rolling his puts into Nymex crude oil futures options into September expiry, nothing big in the options market yesterday, with roughly equal call and put options volumes (perhaps why the crude oil price crush faded)
Nevertheless, the upcoming options expiry remains skewed on puts and that might weight on the price unless a new catalyst is strong enough to drive the price higher sending more puts OTM / more calls ITM and cause market makers delta hedging rebalancing that can support the upward move
As I said many many times for months, China crude oil imports tumbled because they cannot buy Iranian crude due to US blockade and war disruptions not because they wanted to "save the world" as many charlatans claimed - as a result their Shandong refineries inventories continue to be drained and now down to a critical level similar to what happened for other countries in the world that cannot import much crude from the middle east (not Iranian crude, because their refineries are not set up for it)
