JustDario
Private Post
Get access to all contentUnlock private posts and exclusive community discussions.Sign up
Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, angel investor, and finance veteran with over a decade of experience in trading, securities structuring, derivatives, and fintech in Europe and Asia. My focus is on data-driven analysis of macro and stocks to identify investment opportunities, especially asymmetric ones. My public research is available on justdario.com.
Crude Oil Market Update
The EIA reported another large draw of crude oil for a total of 9.3m barrels for the week ending on the 26th of June, of which 5.5m barrels are SPR, confirming the US continues to hemorrhage crude oil inventory while crude oil prices continue to go down.
The mainstream narrative, heavily influenced by messaging coming unilaterally from the US government, continues claiming that crude oil is now flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. So far, we don't see any meaningful drop in US exports whatsoever, though, which remains elevated at almost double the pre-war level.
The most important piece of information in this report was the confirmation that Cushing inventories are now at tank bottoms. As you can observe in the last table, crude oil inventory draws were reported in all PADDs, including the Midwest, while Cushing was the ONLY build. Clearly, crude oil was shifted into Cushing to keep it operational. Now the big question is how long can this continue before all othe