BraVoCycles

The 28-Year Cycle in the U.S. Stock Market.

This dominant time cycle was the driving force behind the last two secular "lost decades" in equities:
The stagflationary 1970s
The Dot-Com / GFC crash of the early 2000s

As mapped below, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the cliff of another major down-phase.

Time is running out for this macro expansion.

Note: this cycle is not for market timing, but for long-term picture.

The Buffett Indicator is flashing a historic warning.
While retail investors chase the late-cycle momentum, Berkshire Hathaway has quietly built a record-breaking bunker of liquidity.

Berkshire's cash, cash equivalents, and T-bills are now knocking on the door of $397.4 Billion. They have been net sellers of equities for 14 consecutive quarters.

When you look at the two charts below, the motive becomes crystal clear. At a 233% Market Cap-to-GDP ratio, the market is sitting at the most structurally overvalued reading in modern financial history.

Warren Buffett famously called this metric "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."

Today, both representations of the data show the exact same extreme:
Chart 1: Standard view puts us deep into "Significantly Overvalued" territory at 233%.
Chart 2: The regression trendline view shows the market sits more than 2 Standard Deviations above historical norms.

This isn't just theory—it's actionable macro reality. It expl

100 Years of U.S. Equity Cycles: Are We Facing a Generational Turning Point?

The secular super-cycle wave (III) has been building since the absolute ashes of the 1929 market crash. Today, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the terminal completion of Cycle-degree Wave V.

Price has recently pushed above the critical multi-decade upper channel line connecting the 1929 and 2000 Dot-Com peaks.

Consensus calls this the birth of a new, endless bull run. But Elliott Wave principles warn of a far different outcome: The Classic Channel Throwover.

If history and structural guidelines hold:

·         A sharp reversal back inside the channel is imminent.

·         A prolonged, multi-year Wave (IV) correction will follow.

·         The silver lining? A massive 50-year Wave (V) generational buying opportunity awaits on the other side.

"Every great cycle must come to an end."

This Analysis will blow your mind

I hear every day that owning stocks and hard assets will protect you from inflation.

Or earnings are going to be great -> stock will be much higher.

If you believe in this, think again. Let’s examine how stocks performed in the past during inflationary periods.

The Inflation Rate in the 1970s - The 1970s was structurally defined by "stagflation," punctuated by two massive double-digit inflation supply shocks (the 1973–74 OPEC oil embargo and the 1979 energy crisis).

• Average Inflation Rate (Decade Average): ~6.8% to 7.4% (depending on whether you look at the PCE deflator or the headline Consumer Price Index). This was nearly triple the rate of the prior two decades.
• The Trajectory: Inflation started the decade at a warm 5.7% in 1970, skyrocketed to a painful peak of 12.2% in 1974, cooled briefly to 4.8% in 1976, and then surged back into a massive secular cycle peak of 13.5% in 1980.

S&P 500 Earnings Growth in the 1970s - This is where the major "macro twist"