BraVoCycles

Warsh's first Fed meeting: a regime change on two fronts at once (Repost from X)

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% today — a fourth straight hold. But the hold buried the real story. Kevin Warsh used his debut to signal a hawkish turn AND rewire how the Fed talks to markets.

The hawkish surprise. Trump appointed Warsh to cut. Instead, the committee signaled a hike is ahead — nearly every member now expects to hike or hold, with only one official penciling a cut this year. The driver: inflation from the Iran war, with May CPI at 4.2%. Median dot now sees rates at 3.8% by year-end — implying one hike, then a long hold.

"Regime change," literally. Warsh announced five task forces to rethink core areas of monetary policy — communications, the balance sheet, productivity & jobs, and inflation frameworks. The charge: "start with first principles, ask hard questions... propose next steps." He'd promised regime change. Today he meant it.

No forward guidance. This is the big one for traders. Warsh s

How Do I Calculate Targets

Uptrend Example (Downtrend Reverse)

(A) Upside targets, 2 methods:

1. Fibonacci expansions for the assumed Elliott wave structure (I think I had a lesson on that, and will try to repost it when I find it), for example, the most typical target for wave 3 is the fib expansion 1.618% of 1-2, but it could be also 1.382%, 200% and in extended 3rd waves even 2.618%
2. Using the cycle price projections which have accuracy of >70% hit rate; as the trend evolves, higher and higher targets trigger, keeping us in trade. When the highest possible target is achieved, it is a sign of mature trend and apending reversal

(B) Downside targets

• It is generally premature to talk about downtrend targets before there is a clear top indication.
• Assuming a top is in place, one can use Fibonacci targets for retracements. For example, if the high was wave 3, an ideal retrace of 3 is 38.2%, but it could also be 23.6% or 50%. Ideal wave 1 retracement is 61.8%, but it could be also 50% or 78.6%.
• Once