BraVoCycles

ES generated a target to exactly June high, will check other cycle targets later

Retail Tech Selling

Retail tech fund outflows were shockingly huge from Monday to Wednesday this week, nothing like this has been recorded in the past seven years.

Is it margin calls, or is retail turning bearish?

Yen, USD, and Yen Carry Trade

Has the era of the Yen carry trade come to an end following recent interventions by the US and Japan?

For decades, investors have capitalized on low Japanese interest rates by borrowing Yen and investing in higher-yielding assets abroad. This strategy, known as the Yen carry trade, has been a cornerstone of global financial flows.

With significant central bank interventions, the dynamics may be shifting.

The image below clearly illustrates how the Yen carry trade operates.

Do you believe these interventions signal a permanent shift, or is the carry trade simply taking a temporary pause?

Market breadth was weak on Friday.

8 out of 11 sectors had negative breadth.

While SPY was up 0.72%, its equal-weight counterpart, RSP, was down 0.17%.

SPX was mainly up due to strength in select Magnificent 7 stocks and industrials, but that may not last much longer.

Russell 2000 vs S&P 500

IWM to SPY Ratio – Cycle Analysis

Cycles suggest that RUT is likely to underperform SPX until Oct '26.

If you're overweight small-cap stocks, it's not too late to trim your positions.