Allow for the usual FED announcement related whipsaws.
Remember, the post-FED reaction is usually reversed the next day.
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Editor of Market Twists & Turns — delivering unmatched stock, crypto, commodities, and forex analysis using a unique blend of Cycles, Cycle Price Projections, Elliott Wave Theory, plus technical & sentiment tools. With 30 years in financial markets, I help you anticipate turns, ride waves, and stay ahead of the crowd. Subscribe for real-time analysis and insights. Not a financial advisor.
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SPX Short-Term Update
What is FED going to do? I do not know. But this is what Elliott wave analysis suggests.
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The Fed's next move drops at 2 p.m. ET, don't look away.
We're getting fresh economic projections and a decision on rates, immediately followed by Powell's press conference.
Last December, the Fed signaled one rate cut for 2026. If that outlook changes today, even to zero cuts or a surprise hike, the market will react fast.
And keep an eye on any hints from Powell about his future, since his term as chairman wraps in May but he could stay on the board.
Analysts widely expect rates to stay at 3.5%–3.75% for the second meeting in a row, despite last year's three rapid cuts.
How are you positioned if the Fed pivots unexpectedly?
Markets just got a wake-up call.
February PPI surged 0.7%, more than double expectations. Stocks instantly took a hit, while crude oil held its ground as tensions flare in the Gulf with ongoing Iranian attacks.
Everyone's focused on the Fed, but inflation and geopolitics are hijacking the narrative.
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Forex - EURUSD EW Count Alternatives
EURUSD can be counted as topped in Oct'25. But that could also be green circle-b. In the latter case one more lower low can complete green circle-c of 4, which would require one more high in wave 5 later this year.
Structurally, I prefer the black count, but if the red count is operational for DXY, then the green count in EURUSD has a chance.
Primary ETHUSD Elliott Wave Count
I expect ETH to make one more low in wave 5 to complete circle-C of a giant triangle, then up in circle-D.
Bitcoin 80-Day Cycle Price Projection
BTC has just generated an 80D cycle target of approximately 80,150-85,800.
SPX Update
SPX almost closed the gap fully and reached the 61.8% retracement fib. Could it make one more push higher? Sure, but it was close enough.
Gold: Preferred Elliott Wave Count
