The Fed's next move drops at 2 p.m. ET, don't look away.
We're getting fresh economic projections and a decision on rates, immediately followed by Powell's press conference.
Last December, the Fed signaled one rate cut for 2026. If that outlook changes today, even to zero cuts or a surprise hike, the market will react fast.
And keep an eye on any hints from Powell about his future, since his term as chairman wraps in May but he could stay on the board.
Analysts widely expect rates to stay at 3.5%–3.75% for the second meeting in a row, despite last year's three rapid cuts.
How are you positioned if the Fed pivots unexpectedly?
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Forex - EURUSD EW Count Alternatives
EURUSD can be counted as topped in Oct'25. But that could also be green circle-b. In the latter case one more lower low can complete green circle-c of 4, which would require one more high in wave 5 later this year.
Structurally, I prefer the black count, but if the red count is operational for DXY, then the green count in EURUSD has a chance.
Solar Cycles vs. Financial Markets
Solar activity is strongly correlated with financial markets.
Sunspot peaks often coincide with peaks in various financial markets, such as stocks, gold, and crypto.
Stock market lows typically precede or occur simultaneously with sunspot lows. Based on the projected evolution of the solar cycle, the next major stock market low is expected around 2030. Interestingly, this aligns with my analysis of longer-term stock market cycles.