BraVoCycles

GEX Cycles vs Gross & Net Gamma Exposure

• The first chart shows the gross gamma map until January.
• Bigger dots mean more gamma. Grey means calls and puts are roughly matched, blue is call-heavy, orange is put-heavy. The largest dots, at 8000 and 7000, are matched positions. Call-heavy strikes from 8050 to 8200 appear for the December and early-January expiries.
• The second chart shows the net gamma map until January.
• On a net basis 7000 disappears and 8000 shrinks to an ordinary dot: for the 18 December week it holds about $31 billion of gross gamma but only about $1.2 billion net. The largest net positions are call gamma near the current price for the 16 October expiry (roughly $3 billion each at 7800 to 7900) and at 8040 to 8160 for the turn of the year. Net put gamma is sparse and below the market, at 7650 to 7700 for late October and 7500 for 20 November.

SPX vs GEX Cycles

• Dealers' gamma exposure (GEX) data from SqueezeMetrics has similar (almost the same) cycles as SPX.
• Positive GEX means dealers are long gamma and should sell rallies and buy dips. Negative means they are short gamma and should trade with the move.
• However, the GEX cycle composite leads SPX cycle composite by about 1-3 weeks
• Not sure how to use this cycle lead time, but getting the same cycles from different data is a good confirmation of SPX cycles and turning points

TSLA Cycle Analysis

• If TSLA continues higher, as allowed by cycles, my bearish EW count will be likely invalidated