BraVoCycles

SPX Time Cycles

·         The early June peak coincided with a cycle peak confluence of multiple cycles.

·         While longer cycles have turned down, or are doing so, the cycle picture is especially complex next week for some dominant long cycles.

·         In the next few days we have the following estimated peaks and troughs: 1. 122.4td peak (green diamond); 2) 58.9td trough (orange diamond), and 3) 186.6td peak (red diamond); It is not very clear how this will play out, but one could argue more upside bias early this week based on these three cycles.

·         Then all should head down toward the trough of the 77.3td cycle about 7/13/26, which is relatively strong and could produce a bounce going against these other cycles.

Note: the triangles and diamonds in the top panel correspond to individual cycle peaks and troughs for short and long cycles, respectively. The color codes are provided in the legend.

SPX Technical Indicators

·         I track several technical indicators tuned to the 77td cycle which has relatively strongest impact on intermediate-term price swings.

·         They deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks and even if SPX makes a higher high, they will likely exhibit strong negative divergences.

·         Incredible momentum since the end of March is fading.

Crude Oil (CL) - 3 Dominant Cycles
- CL has been dropping since March following the three dominant cycles faithfully. The war and Hormuz news has been creating small wiggles but the trend was down, aside from daily news noise.
- Based on these 3 cycles, should form a trough of sorts in several weeks and bounce in August. The key word is "bounce."