BraVoCycles

Long-Term (4Y & 8Y) Gold Cycles

Gold hit a LT cycle peak in early 2026:
• The chart below shows the cycle composite of 4.5Y and 7Y cycles, as presently measured; some analysts refer to them as 4Y and 8Y cycles.
• They are still trending down toward the second half of 2028, but then should point up into 2030.
• Curiously, the 2028-2030 up-phase is opposite of the expected down-phase in the stock market in the same period.
• Will that be a fear trade, or something more fundamental, say currency-related?
• But these cycles indicate that the expected high degree 4-th wave may not be over until 2028, and that the expected bounce in gold may just be a B wave in an A-B-C correction.

VIX Intermediate-to-Long-Term Cycles

• VIX seasonality is bullish (for VIX) until Q4’26, as I showed a few days ago.
• The 6-month cycle below is an excellent fit to VIX price moves and aligns nicely with VIX seasonality.
• The 2nd figure shows the composite of the 6M cycle and 9M (Hurst nominal 40W) cycle, and the cycle picture remains about the same.
• Notice that VIX is sitting at the bottom on 6M and 9M cycle envelopes, from which it typically attempts a rebound to spike above the envelope.

SPX Micro-EW Alternatives

·         SPX is similar to ES, but I show a bit more detail.

·         Both orange and black bullish triangles are possible.

·         The key detail is a small sub-micro triangle, developed on 7/15016, for micro-B.

·         This precludes any impulsive option down from the 7/10 high, e.g., from red circle-ii.

·         Only the red diagonal remains as an option for red (i), which is somewhat early to bet on.

·         That red diagonal could also fit into an expanded flat for green circle-ii or blue circle-iv.

·         There is also an alternate bearish triangle (not shown) still in progress for wave (b), from which wave (c) down would fit green circle-ii or blue circle-iv.

·         Since assuming the red triangle is premature now, triangle options become more likely, and the red count is less likely.

SPX Large Degree Elliott Wave Counts

• Let me share the big degree EW count options for the benefit of new subscribers.
• The brown count corresponds to an ending diagonal for circle-5 (Primary-5).
• The completion of circle-5 will correspond to the completion of super-cycle degree (III).
• This would be a big milestone, as (III) lasted about 100 years.
• The black count is an impulsive version of circle-5.
• The green count is a sub-variant of the black one, which allows wave (5) to be more proportionate to wave (1).
• Green (5) can extend into 2027-28; as you might remember from my cycle discussions, I expect a positive market in 2027.